EGPF Forum

I like many, many others am currently in this position. Every day the news regarding civil aviation worsens: be it from enormous, unsustainable losses; travel restrictions, cancellations and inability to process or repay refunds. And there is no glimmer of light at the end of this extremely long tunnel.

It’s all very well to postulate regards furlough payments, forget foreign holidays, stay at home etc,etc however nobody so far has actually said what we are facing here isn’t just a company or couple of companies facing ruin - it’s a complete industry and everything directly and indirectly facing with it. Taking out commercial aviation results in airline job losses, handling companies job losses, airport job losses, the travel trade be it counterfacing staff in shops or online travel companies, caterers, fuellers et al.

This then spills out into the wider economy, oil companies, banks through mortgage holidays, repossessions impacting their profits, company dividends being slashed or ceased, councils not receiving rates for business impacting their ability to provide services......and finally income tax as more people will be made redundant and tax revenue will fall. Then.... who will be left to pay into the system to fund the public sector, or will the public sector be slashed to cut costs? This is even before mentioning the NHS who like many other services are at the front end fighting Covid 19.

All this sounds so negative, and it is! What is required is a safe, sensible and proactive move to ease out gradually from all the current restrictions imposed. Use all the information from our own scientists and medical officers and examine how other European countries are coping. Look, listen, learn and implement before it’s too late.

Otherwise civil aviation will become a distant memory, a flight of fantasy.

The advice that you end up giving is actually what’s happening and air travel is going to restart. No one anywhere is saying it’s finished.

Unless I’m missing something?

It's not going to be completely finished, but it is going to be a hell of alot smaller for several years. Just look at some of the numbers being banded about regarding job losses.

GKirk wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 11:54 am It's not going to be completely finished, but it is going to be a hell of alot smaller for several years. Just look at some of the numbers being banded about regarding job losses.

Some airlines, like BA and Ryanair, are going to use the opportunity to right-size their business. It’s an excuse really.

I’ve no doubt that a year after Covid everyone will be wanting to travel as normal.

[quote=Clive post_id=365 time=1589713059 user_id=2]
[quote=GKirk post_id=364 time=1589712841 user_id=86]
It's not going to be completely finished, but it is going to be a hell of alot smaller for several years. Just look at some of the numbers being banded about regarding job losses.
[/quote]

Some airlines, like BA and Ryanair, are going to use the opportunity to right-size their business. It’s an excuse really.

I’ve no doubt that a year after Covid everyone will be wanting to travel as normal.
[/quote]

I do Clive. It’s an industry dependent on disposable income. Businesses may well decide that face to face meetings are replaced with conference calls, and CEOs etc may well end up travelling on private jets. Those still in work may well be picking up the cost of mortgage, credit card holidays, the older age groups may be hit by highly restricted and expensive travel insurance....and so it goes on. I remember after the Court Line debacle , and remember that was only one company despite being the industry leader, it took almost four years, and a change of government for confidence to reappear. I can see essential goods and services becoming more expensive eroding even more that precious disposable income. I reckon we are looking at around 40% job losses at the better end of the scale.

atuk wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 12:30 pm I do Clive. It’s an industry dependent on disposable income. Businesses may well decide that face to face meetings are replaced with conference calls, and CEOs etc may well end up travelling on private jets. Those still in work may well be picking up the cost of mortgage, credit card holidays, the older age groups may be hit by highly restricted and expensive travel insurance....and so it goes on. I remember after the Court Line debacle , and remember that was only one company despite being the industry leader, it took almost for years, and a change if government for confidence to reappear. I can see essential goods and services becoming more expensive eroding even more that precious disposable income. I reckon we are looking at around 40% job losses at the better end of the scale.

Aye but if we think of Scotland or GLA in particular, l can see everyone who would normally travel being desperate to travel. I know that Jet2 for example plan to get to 100% or more as soon as possible. S21 and beyond should be huge for them. easyJet look set fair at GLA too. Ryanair could grow here as you’ve said. Loganair are right-sizing, TUI should survive, Virgin are modernising but continuing here, Aer Lingus might have to change to jets, KLM, Lufthansa, Icelandair, WestJet, Air Transat/Air Canada, Emirates, all standing by to resume ASAP. Delta and United I don’t know.

So it’s like a big reset, with the cream rising to the top and the bad wood being washed away. It’s far from terminal IMHO.

Business travel may become a smaller set due to modernised communications and the tightening of belts (both of which should have been done anyway) but that aside, when the virus is history I can’t see any long term reluctance to travel.

I agree.As soon as it's possible to do so safely and without the extra hassle Coronavirus has caused,the world and his dog are gonna want to get away for breaks en masse.I consider myself in this category having cancelled the Costa Del Sol jaunt due in July.It may take a couple of years but aviation will recover in a new,leaner form due to demand.It will be super tough getting to this point though.
I actually think that from GLA's perspective the worst affected routes long term will be internal,e.g London as a lot of industry now will realise that there's no point in flying all and sundry all over the shop when a Skype or Zoom call will do at practically no expense in most cases.

Just a wee update. As encouraged to do so I’ve contacted my MP to ask questions regards furlough, quarantine and when and how further help can be given to the aviation industry.

I’ve also sent a personal email to a well known newspaper columnist with close links to the Government copying in my station manager and local union rep. So far no reply from her, but here’s hoping the message is taken to heart and acted upon.

All folks who know me well will know well that I have always picked up the cudgels to fight for the underdog. I’ll never, ever, be silent where injustice is concerned.

What is it that you are seeking external assistance with?

hads wrote: ↑Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:29 am What is it that you are seeking external assistance with?

Two week quarantine rule for starters.