GLA is down, but has more growth potential

[GeorgeNTravels]

As some of you will remember about 20 months ago I wrote a piece on my website about the plummeting success of Glasgow Airport, and it split opinion in two.

I have spent the last week doing research and writing a follow-up for it. In it, I have highlighted the differences between the winter 2018/19 season and the summer 2022/23 season including the routes no longer served, how capacity has been affected by the collapse of Thomas Cook and then highlighting other new additions or route removals.

I then highlighted the differences between summer 2019 and summer 2023 but did not outline the impact of Thomas Cook's collapse as getting dates for their routes is impossible. Therefore I explored the Transatlantic market from Glasgow and what happened to each airline, before going on to compare the market growth or fall in each country served by GLA between summer 2022 and summer 2023.

I have given my opinions on small changes GLA can make, included some quotes from former GLA management, alongside information from another airport CEO about GLA. I have also outlined known growth for both this winter and next summer.

I am making it available 24 hours early for all forum members and would like your feedback on what I have written.

Link to Story: https://georgentravels.com/2023/05/11/o ... potential/
Password to Story: GLAOPINION

[helensburghexile]

Super read George, really well put together, and plenty food for thought.

[egpffqtv]

Interesting read.

Quick question - is there any reason you didn't add KLM to AMS and LH to FRA?

Also, never analysed the figures in great detail - but are the figures to STN accurate = 6/7 fights per week?

[GeorgeNTravels]

Interesting read.

Quick question - is there any reason you didn't add KLM to AMS and LH to FRA?

Also, never analysed the figures in great detail - but are the figures to STN accurate = 6/7 fights per week?

One the first point, they were already operating so were not included in the document showing the changes, but I’ll add a bit at the end about hub connections and mention them there.

On the second point, the figures in the documents are from the GLA destination guide which only shows what day of the week flights are available and not frequencies, it’s a pain as it would be good to have that info. I’ve double checked the schedules post on here and realised it operated more Saturdays than it didn’t operate so I’ll update that now.

Cheers for pointing it out.

[ADIG]

Apologies if this comes across as marking your homework

4th paragraph

'as well as revelling where the losses in capacity are present'

typo which changes the context of the sentence

The winter comparison table, should Thomas Cook to Arrecife be N/A for 22/23?

The Summer season analysis states winter

"More Detailed Insight

At some point between the end of the summer 2019 season and the start of the summer 2023 season 17 routes have been cut from Glasgow airport during the winter season, below is a breakdown of these destinations."

'carries' instead of 'carriers'

[Clive]

Good info, George, and a lot of work has gone into that.

It would be interesting to know how GLA’s post lockdown recovery (c76% at the mo?) compares to the totals for Scotland and the UK, to see whether we are relatively struggling or on track.

Also, did you mention our new airline Play?

I think in the next few years we will see easyJet and Jet2 add further new aircraft, Virgin Atlantic to return with tail between legs and the big one - a Ryanair base which changes everything. Ryanair alone can quite easily add a million pax per year for the next 4 years once a deal is done. Budapest is an interesting one and Wizz Air are the obvious candidate that BUD will be speaking to (see these things can happen at either end of the route - something we never consider in here). Once Wizz are back on the books at GLA maybe they could add a few routes or even set up a base.

[GeorgeNTravels]

Apologies if this comes across as marking your homework

4th paragraph

'as well as revelling where the losses in capacity are present'

typo which changes the context of the sentence

The winter comparison table, should Thomas Cook to Arrecife be N/A for 22/23?

The Summer season analysis states winter

"More Detailed Insight

At some point between the end of the summer 2019 season and the start of the summer 2023 season 17 routes have been cut from Glasgow airport during the winter season, below is a breakdown of these destinations."

'carries' instead of 'carriers'

All fixed, thanks for pointing them out

[GeorgeNTravels]

Good info, George, and a lot of work has gone into that.

It would be interesting to know how GLA’s post lockdown recovery (c76% at the mo?) compares to the totals for Scotland and the UK, to see whether we are relatively struggling or on track.

Also, did you mention our new airline Play?

I think in the next few years we will see easyJet and Jet2 add further new aircraft, Virgin Atlantic to return with tail between legs and the big one - a Ryanair base which changes everything. Ryanair alone can quite easily add a million pax per year for the next 4 years once a deal is done. Budapest is an interesting one and Wizz Air are the obvious candidate that BUD will be speaking to (see these things can happen at either end of the route - something we never consider in here). Once Wizz are back on the books at GLA maybe they could add a few routes or even set up a base.

Thanks Clive, longest part was doing the calculations for the Winter season. Our recovery is approximately 80% but I will double check and try to work out some other airports.

I added a small bit about PLAY after reading through it again in the section about market growth and highlighted both the Reykjavik option or the option to connect to North America. I agree with EZY and LS alongside Virgin who could also be key to getting NYC back.

Ryanair I think probably will be back, especially with the mentioned capacity issues elsewhere. I was speaking with some other forum users and we narrowed BUD down to either FR, W6 or Jet2, but our concern with Jet2 is they will do what they do with PRG and KRK and stop during peak summer.

[Clive]

Good info, George, and a lot of work has gone into that.

It would be interesting to know how GLA’s post lockdown recovery (c76% at the mo?) compares to the totals for Scotland and the UK, to see whether we are relatively struggling or on track.

Also, did you mention our new airline Play?

I think in the next few years we will see easyJet and Jet2 add further new aircraft, Virgin Atlantic to return with tail between legs and the big one - a Ryanair base which changes everything. Ryanair alone can quite easily add a million pax per year for the next 4 years once a deal is done. Budapest is an interesting one and Wizz Air are the obvious candidate that BUD will be speaking to (see these things can happen at either end of the route - something we never consider in here). Once Wizz are back on the books at GLA maybe they could add a few routes or even set up a base.

Thanks Clive, longest part was doing the calculations for the Winter season. Our recovery is approximately 80% but I will double check and try to work out some other airports.

I didn’t want airport specific - just wanted to compare to the Scottish and UK totals if that’s possible, to see how GLA is doing against that average. Reason being is the nationwide and UK markets can be taken as living in the same post Covid environment as GLA. I really don’t want to hear about comparison to EDI!!!

I added a small bit about PLAY after reading through it again in the section about market growth and highlighted both the Reykjavik option or the option to connect to North America. I agree with EZY and LS alongside Virgin who could also be key to getting NYC back.

Ryanair I think probably will be back, especially with the mentioned capacity issues elsewhere. I was speaking with some other forum users and we narrowed BUD down to either FR, W6 or Jet2, but our concern with Jet2 is they will do what they do with PRG and KRK and stop during peak summer.

Jet2 also don’t serve the full market for such flights so if they did it it would have limited penetration, like their other city routes from GLA. A big budget airline would capture the real market share better, but of course we’d take anything.

[Planeenthusiast]

An interesting article. The one thing I didn’t read, unless I missed it, is any comments on the failure of GLA management to win new routes or regain lost ones. Potential, yes, perhaps. An acceptance that EDI marketing and management teams continue to be miles ahead? In a competitive market, the winners is usually the ones that go that extra mile to secure the business. I don’t see this with the current management team at GLA.