G-WATP wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 7:31 pm
An increase to 8.5m equates to about a further 1.3m passengers compared to the MAT to October 2023 of 7.2m (latest month from CAA data). There's not much growth between now and March, so most of that 1.3m has to happen between March and December, with the bulk of it most likely being by October.
We know we'll have three additional based 737s across TUI and Jet2. Assuming four sector days for each for 211 days and 189 seats equates to around a further 475,000. Add a two aircraft Ryanair base assuming eight sector days and you get about another 630,000 (might not be as much as that if the based aircraft took over some of the current away-based flying). So that's about 1.1m over the summer, leaving about another 200,000 to come from less intensive use of those additional aircraft in November and December. Plus there'll be some growth on existing services no doubt and the sixth based easyJet aircraft.
Ronald Leitch is presumably as ITK as they come.
I believe on most days of the week one of the TUI aircraft does a W pattern to ABZ, so I'd suggest they might generate somewhat fewer pax than calculated. I think also that their Summer season starts in early May, so perhaps more like 180 days than 211?
If FR were to base again, I could possibly see them going back onto STN and perhaps starting BFS, but I still think it might be a bit of a stretch to consistantly get up to 8 sector days, especially when their ops would probably also include plenty longer flights to the Med.
Taking these factors into account GLA might need more like 3 FR aircraft, or some other new routes/airlines, especially they're going for "well over" 8.5m.
It's certainly interesting to see the COO saying this, as you say given his position you would hope he should be in the know! However, we've also had plenty false dawns and rumours that go nowhere, so I'll wait and see.