Ryanair: Could my prayers be answered?

[Clive]

Currently 7.2m

It needs an 18% increase to get to 8.5m which seems somewhat optimistic

Yip but that’s what he said in a quote about the upcoming jobs fair at the airport. We’d need a Ryanair base to get to that number this year otherwise it can’t happen.

Here's the quote for those who have not seen it, copied directly from the media release,

Ronald Leitch, Interim Chief Operating Officer of AGS Airports, which owns Glasgow Airport, said: “As we enter the new year and the aviation industry continues grow from strength to strength, we anticipate that Glasgow Airport will welcome well over 8.5-million passengers 2024.

So something major must be happening unless he’s mistaken.

[will1983]

https://www.glasgowairport.com/media-ce ... next-week/

It is quoted as 'well over 8.5 million passengers for 2024'.

[southflyer]

There would have to be some serious expansion on the way, given that 2019 saw just under 8.9 million. And that's taking into account that any new services would not benefit from a full year of operation.

[G-WATP]

An increase to 8.5m equates to about a further 1.3m passengers compared to the MAT to October 2023 of 7.2m (latest month from CAA data). There's not much growth between now and March, so most of that 1.3m has to happen between March and December, with the bulk of it most likely being by October.

We know we'll have three additional based 737s across TUI and Jet2. Assuming four sector days for each for 211 days and 189 seats equates to around a further 475,000 (a bit less than that in reality as there'll be some W patterns). Add a two aircraft Ryanair base assuming eight sector days and you get about another 630,000 (might not be as much as that if the based aircraft took over some of the current away-based flying). So that's about 1.1m over the summer, leaving about another 200,000 to come from less intensive use of those additional aircraft in November and December. Plus there'll be some growth on existing services no doubt and the sixth based easyJet aircraft.

Ronald Leitch is presumably as ITK as they come, so should be a busy summer ahead.

[Iain]

An increase to 8.5m equates to about a further 1.3m passengers compared to the MAT to October 2023 of 7.2m (latest month from CAA data). There's not much growth between now and March, so most of that 1.3m has to happen between March and December, with the bulk of it most likely being by October.

We know we'll have three additional based 737s across TUI and Jet2. Assuming four sector days for each for 211 days and 189 seats equates to around a further 475,000. Add a two aircraft Ryanair base assuming eight sector days and you get about another 630,000 (might not be as much as that if the based aircraft took over some of the current away-based flying). So that's about 1.1m over the summer, leaving about another 200,000 to come from less intensive use of those additional aircraft in November and December. Plus there'll be some growth on existing services no doubt and the sixth based easyJet aircraft.

Ronald Leitch is presumably as ITK as they come.

I believe on most days of the week one of the TUI aircraft does a W pattern to ABZ, so I'd suggest they might generate somewhat fewer pax than calculated. I think also that their Summer season starts in early May, so perhaps more like 180 days than 211?

If FR were to base again, I could possibly see them going back onto STN and perhaps starting BFS, but I still think it might be a bit of a stretch to consistantly get up to 8 sector days, especially when their ops would probably also include plenty longer flights to the Med.

Taking these factors into account GLA might need more like 3 FR aircraft, or some other new routes/airlines, especially they're going for "well over" 8.5m.

It's certainly interesting to see the COO saying this, as you say given his position you would hope he should be in the know! However, we've also had plenty false dawns and rumours that go nowhere, so I'll wait and see.

[GeorgeNTravels]

An increase to 8.5m equates to about a further 1.3m passengers compared to the MAT to October 2023 of 7.2m (latest month from CAA data). There's not much growth between now and March, so most of that 1.3m has to happen between March and December, with the bulk of it most likely being by October.

We know we'll have three additional based 737s across TUI and Jet2. Assuming four sector days for each for 211 days and 189 seats equates to around a further 475,000. Add a two aircraft Ryanair base assuming eight sector days and you get about another 630,000 (might not be as much as that if the based aircraft took over some of the current away-based flying). So that's about 1.1m over the summer, leaving about another 200,000 to come from less intensive use of those additional aircraft in November and December. Plus there'll be some growth on existing services no doubt and the sixth based easyJet aircraft.

Ronald Leitch is presumably as ITK as they come.

I believe on most days of the week one of the TUI aircraft does a W pattern to ABZ, so I'd suggest they might generate somewhat fewer pax than calculated. I think also that their Summer season starts in early May, so perhaps more like 180 days than 211?

If FR were to base again, I could possibly see them going back onto STN and perhaps starting BFS, but I still think it might be a bit of a stretch to consistantly get up to 8 sector days, especially when their ops would probably also include plenty longer flights to the Med.

Taking these factors into account GLA might need more like 3 FR aircraft, or some other new routes/airlines, especially they're going for "well over" 8.5m.

It's certainly interesting to see the COO saying this, as you say given his position you would hope he should be in the know! However, we've also had plenty false dawns and rumours that go nowhere, so I'll wait and see.

When TUI announced 2 new aircraft they claimed 180,000 extra seats, but this is essentially just replacing Ryanair capacity, as their 6 routes had in the region of 160,000 seats, plus Dublin sees a reduction on some flights due to the removal of the 737-8-200 from Dublin.

Then PLAY has to be factored into the equation, with the loss of 30k seats or so, it takes the remaining 20k left by TUI growth, as well as eating into the Jet2 growth.

By my rough sums the growth figure for GLA in summer is around 290k for the season.

[will1983]

What’s the S24 EZY growth from the 6th A/C, they’ve also got a lot of away-based flying (ALC) that was originally done by GLA based A/C in the past.

[awwdabaaby]

What’s the S24 EZY growth from the 6th A/C, they’ve also got a lot of away-based flying (ALC) that was originally done by GLA based A/C in the past.

Just saying.....

https://gla.scot/forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=801

Page 2

[will1983]

Sorry can’t see any mention of passenger number growth for S24 vs S23 in that Page 2?

[Bearsden]

A few interesting assumptions / calculations above . . . but nothing concrete to bridge the 1.3m

The cynic in me reflects on the need for AGS to renegotiate its bank loans in June this year