EGPF Forum

Trying to discuss Sars-Cov-2 without mentioning politics is going to be a very difficult if not an impossible task.
Simply because it is not so much the pathogen which has caused the problems, but the reactions of governments worldwide to it.
That said, we are where we are, so we will all need to get a shovel and start digging ourselves out of this mess, if we ever want to get some semblance of normality back into our lives.
I still hold the view that the future of GLA is on a very shaky nail. All airports are, but some are in a worse place than others.
GLA's biggest problem is that we have EDI sitting on our doorstep, and if only one airport in Scotland survives this, it will be EDI. Sorry, I wish it were not so, but that is how I read it.
What governments worldwide have done in their reaction to Sars-Cov-2, is to effectively shut down the world economy, albeit cherry-picking which businesses stay open and which need to shut. Unfortunately, governments simply do not have the intelligence to understand how complex and interconnected our world economy is. They further failed to understand just how fragile the world economy actually was at the time, and they also were totally oblivious to the fact that the world economy has been crumbling around our feet for the past 20 odd years, and that it is kept alive simply by conjuring fake money out of thin air.
On top of all that, and again being apolitical on the issue, a process know as Brexit was sprung upon us. Regardless of which side of the fence you sit on, it is a process which does have serious short-term economic side-effects.

So, with all that said, we now need to consider what the future holds, and in doing so we also need to keep in mind that there is a very strong lobby out to destroy air-travel, simply because they see it as polluting their precious planet.
What I see as being the biggest obstacle to a revival in Air Travel is the economy. When people have got no money, then they cannot spend it. It's that simple.
The West of Scotland is in general terms an economically depressed area in a country, the UK, which is also experiencing economic decline. The reasons for this are manyfold, and would need to be discussed in a different thread to this.
While we might see a short boost coming from travel restrictions being slowly lifted, I still see that as being short lived. Everybody will have a quick jaunt abroad once more, but they will soon realise two things:
1). The extra cost and the extra hassle of "Air travel under Covid".
2). Due to declining economic conditions, they no longer have the money.
We can of course argue that some people still do have the money because they are still earning:- people like Drs. and staff of the NHS and all pubic sector employees. They were not shut down or furloughed and are now sitting on a pile of unspent wages. However, looking at the population as a whole, the mean wealth has dropped significantly. Now on top of this, we are now entering into a period of very high energy prices, so all our bills are going up this winter, and they will probably not come down next summer.
When people need to spend more on the basics in life, then they will have much less to spend on their little luxuries, like travel.
It might also be recognized that decreasing discretionary prosperity leaves less resources available for the “streams of income” business model built on the continuity of subscriptions, stage payments and various forms of credit.
This further reduces the money in the economy

1-11 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:14 pm Trying to discuss Sars-Cov-2 without mentioning politics is going to be a very difficult if not an impossible task.
Simply because it is not so much the pathogen which has caused the problems, but the reactions of governments worldwide to it.
That said, we are where we are, so we will all need to get a shovel and start digging ourselves out of this mess, if we ever want to get some semblance of normality back into our lives.
I still hold the view that the future of GLA is on a very shaky nail. All airports are, but some are in a worse place than others.
GLA's biggest problem is that we have EDI sitting on our doorstep, and if only one airport in Scotland survives this, it will be EDI. Sorry, I wish it were not so, but that is how I read it.
What governments worldwide have done in their reaction to Sars-Cov-2, is to effectively shut down the world economy, albeit cherry-picking which businesses stay open and which need to shut. Unfortunately, governments simply do not have the intelligence to understand how complex and interconnected our world economy is. They further failed to understand just how fragile the world economy actually was at the time, and they also were totally oblivious to the fact that the world economy has been crumbling around our feet for the past 20 odd years, and that it is kept alive simply by conjuring fake money out of thin air.
On top of all that, and again being apolitical on the issue, a process know as Brexit was sprung upon us. Regardless of which side of the fence you sit on, it is a process which does have serious short-term economic side-effects.

So, with all that said, we now need to consider what the future holds, and in doing so we also need to keep in mind that there is a very strong lobby out to destroy air-travel, simply because they see it as polluting their precious planet.
What I see as being the biggest obstacle to a revival in Air Travel is the economy. When people have got no money, then they cannot spend it. It's that simple.
The West of Scotland is in general terms an economically depressed area in a country, the UK, which is also experiencing economic decline. The reasons for this are manyfold, and would need to be discussed in a different thread to this.
While we might see a short boost coming from travel restrictions being slowly lifted, I still see that as being short lived. Everybody will have a quick jaunt abroad once more, but they will soon realise two things:
1). The extra cost and the extra hassle of "Air travel under Covid".
2). Due to declining economic conditions, they no longer have the money.
We can of course argue that some people still do have the money because they are still earning:- people like Drs. and staff of the NHS and all pubic sector employees. They were not shut down or furloughed and are now sitting on a pile of unspent wages. However, looking at the population as a whole, the mean wealth has dropped significantly. Now on top of this, we are now entering into a period of very high energy prices, so all our bills are going up this winter, and they will probably not come down next summer.
When people need to spend more on the basics in life, then they will have much less to spend on their little luxuries, like travel.
It might also be recognized that decreasing discretionary prosperity leaves less resources available for the “streams of income” business model built on the continuity of subscriptions, stage payments and various forms of credit.
This further reduces the money in the economy

Interesting opinion, although ‘ The West of Scotland is in general terms an economically depressed area in a country, the UK.’ Is incorrect: The West of Scotland is of course in a country… Scotland.

I agree with many of the points and issues discussed by Paris

I’ll express my thoughts on the impact on Glasgow Airport in three streams - long-haul, short-haul and domestic

Long-Haul
I do not see the need for any long-haul operator to split its resources over two airports 49 miles apart
I cannot see the US carriers (and Virgin Atlantic which is 49% owned by Delta Airlines) returning to Glasgow so it makes the indirect links with Aer Lingus and Icelandair more significant, in particular to cities not served directly out of Edinburgh
It is a sad sight to go onto the United Airlines website to try and book Glasgow to Newark in June next year and to be offered Lufthansa via Frankfurt and bizarrely options taking more than 24 hours via Kirkwall, Southampton or Stornoway and Edinburgh
I think Westjet’s expansion next year is a precursor to consolidating operations in and out of Scotland in 2023 so somebody needs to be working now on a compelling commercial proposal otherwise another airline will ‘dip its toes’ at Glasgow before ‘submerging’ at Edinburgh
The only daily, year-round long-haul operation at Glasgow is Emirates - now back on a reduced frequency, the #1 focus for Glasgow must be to ensure that when a second rotation is added then it comes to Glasgow using the same economies of scale logic that has driven the US carriers to Edinburgh but the risk is of course relative yields

Short-Haul
easyJet and in particular Ryanair have certainly created demand over the years however both airlines will need to adjust to lower volumes in the short to medium term but both have significant bases on Glasgow’s doorstep which will have to be overloaded and/or overpriced before either airline needs to consider other options while Wizzair have of course passed through Prestwick and Glasgow to Edinburgh
Outbound tourism to Europe other than for ‘city breaks’ to cities served from both airports (eg Amsterdam, Dublin, Krakow) will continue but here the key airline is Jet2 with TUI as a supporting act
Statements from the SG should logically mean that it will not be subsidising outbound tourism eg “We are working closely with airports and airlines to restore and grow international connectivity essential for business, tourism and economic growth. Our aim is to restore connectivity without restoring previous levels of emissions.” . . . but (slightly political) I can envisage that if the sale of Prestwick goes through without shutting down passenger operations then a presentation will be drawn up to show that the direct and indirect passenger revenue at Prestwick exceeds the variable costs of passenger operations (assuming of course that the fixed costs of running the airfield are covered by military and freight operations), if necessary adding a percentage of the revenue from Ryanair’s maintenance base (‘revenue’ could be calculated as the cost of positioning flights) and, of course, preserves jobs

Domestic
Domestic flights to Manchester and East Midlands have probably gone for good while I can’t see easyJet increasing Birmingham beyond double daily which leaves Bristol as the volume route in the south-west with Southampton and Exeter
I cannot see pre COVID-19 frequencies to London returning – my high case scenario is 70% of 2019’s passenger volumes in 2022 while my low case is 50%

In summary, COVID-19 travel constraints plus all the other economic, climate change and emissions pressures will reduce passenger numbers through all of Scotland’s airports – overall I doubt we will reach 60% of 2019’s volumes in 2022 while returning to 100% is years away and in a different long-haul / short-haul / domestic mix
The impact on Glasgow will be greater in percentage terms than Edinburgh

Glasgow handled 8.8m passengers in 2019 (Domestic 3.9m, International 4.9m) . . . 4.0m-4.8m in 2022?

The West of Scotland is in general terms an economically depressed area in a country, the UK.’ Is incorrect: The West of Scotland is of course in a country… Scotland.

I am mindful of avoiding making any kind of political statement here, but the point you make Paris, is valid albeit somewhat pedantic.
My intention though, was to point out the very perilous economic situation that the UK as a whole finds itself in today. The West of Scotland is a region within the UK, and its economic prosperity is very much tied in to policies made by the UK government.
So until such a time that Scotland does achieve full economic independence, then the country you live in, is the United Kingdom.
Again, not being political, but purely focusing on economics in general and aviation in particular, the probability that Scotland would be more prosperous as an independent nation is high, and this would also have a positive effect upon air travel to and from GLA.
However, under the present set of circumstances, I still see a rather negative future for GLA.
I am not sure if I made my argument clear, that I see Covid-19 and Climate Change politics as being two edges of the same sword, so even if we do see a small recovery from Covid-19, we still need to "weather the storm" of Climate Change. These two factors, combined with decreasing economic output, do not bode well for the future at GLA.