Perfect Storm

[bill]

I know that Jet2 are highly confident. They maintain high air fares and high loads and sell rather expensive package holidays, their on board sales are phenomenal, they have a growing fleet and more aircraft on order which are ever more cost effective. They have low staff turnover because they are a well run company who look after their people. So for them and their product the future looks rosy.

Having had dozens of flights and package holidays with Jet2 I concur. Fantastic airline/tour operator.

[viscount]

I agree 100% with Clive great airlines, most times it a morning flight I get and I always buy the breakfast, value for money

[bill]

I agree 100% with Clive great airlines, most times it a morning flight I get and I always buy the breakfast, value for money

Indeed. The breakfast is a must.I also get one on the way home from AGP on the 12 noon'ish flight as I'm too hungover to eat prior to that.

[atuk]

And so it continues.

Full flights, insufficient staff, baggage piled high from missed connections and cancelled flights and Covid on the rise yet again. Cue another work absence due to testing positive - again!

Can aviation get any worse?

[1-11]

Atuk, You ask if it can get any worse for the aviation industry ?

Well the fact is, this is just the beginning of things.
What you are highlighting Atuk, are just the manifestations of the previous Covid Lockdowns - the lack of staff, the lack of training for new personel etc. You cannot switch an Economy 'on' and 'off' like a light switch. There are lags. Infrastructure needs to be put into place.
What we will see in the coming months and years is a continuing decline of the Aviation sector.
I base my prognosis on two things, Money and Energy.

Now the more astute among us will realise that these are one and the same thing, but for the sake of clarity let us deal with them separately.
1). Money.
The average Joe ( or Joanna ) is getting poorer. This is because your money is being eroded through inflation, quicker than you can get a pay rise to compensate for the decline. Now, I know that some readers here have “a Bob or Two”, and regard themselves as relatively comfortable. Those of you in this position, are not the “average Joe”, you are the “above average Joe”. Nonetheless, even if you can still afford 4 jaunts abroad each year, that will soon be cut to 3 jaunts per year, and then 2.
Furthermore, because of point 2) below, people’s discretionary spending ( things like holidays and hobbies ) will decline as more of their income is devoted to paying for essentials like food, shelter and heating.

2). Energy.
This is really what it is all about.
In the past, Energy has been both cheap and abundant.
This is now no longer the case. The cost of Energy is going up. In fact it is going to go up and up and is going to keep on going up and up.
The reason for this is that our sources of energy are getting more difficult - and hence more expensive- to access. All the cheap and easy energy deposits have already been harvested, we are now moving on to the more inaccessible stuff.

These are just two fundamental points, but we must ( unfortunately ) also include the Taboo of politics in the mix.
Politically we have ostrasized Russia, ( not really a smart decision seeing as they are a major supplier of energy )
Suffice to say, that decisions made by politicians on things like taxation and subsidies play a significant role too.
Social engineering is also in play : You have “got to be Seen to be Green”, otherwise you are considered a Pariah. Flying is polluting the air and stuff like that.
Our delusional politicians believe that Fossil Fuels can simply be replaced by Renewables and that life will continue just as before.

So, it’s a double or triple “Whammy” of people having less money, and airline costs increasing.
This only leads to one conclusion – More airlines going to the wall and less flying for everyone.

Ryanair’s O’Leary is now saying that fares are too low and that they will need to rise over the next five years. Although he claims that the age of the era of “low fare flying is not over” , I disagree.

As our economy continues to decline, the Aviation sector will decline faster.

If both Easyjet and Ryanair are going to survive at all, they will have to shed at least 75% of their aircraft and staff. British Airways will be nationalised, an ad-hoc charter airline might also survive.
That’s about it.

[buddyboy]

1-11 I take your points especially that about discretionary spending but re the aviation this very much assumes that aviation tech will stand still. There are various developments that will over time deliver alternative fuel sources for aviation. Be that initially biofuels then into hydrogen for long haul and electric for short.

I would describe as as being in the valley at the moment where tech is developing and expensive but once we crack it, as let's be honest we have always managed in the past we will be in a better place. I think the bigger issue as you have correctly identified is the green agenda. Can the airlines survive the next decade or so as it picks up momentum?

[Clive]

1-11 I take your points especially that about discretionary spending but re the aviation this very much assumes that aviation tech will stand still. There are various developments that will over time deliver alternative fuel sources for aviation. Be that initially biofuels then into hydrogen for long haul and electric for short.

I would describe as as being in the valley at the moment where tech is developing and expensive but once we crack it, as let's be honest we have always managed in the past we will be in a better place. I think the bigger issue as you have correctly identified is the green agenda. Can the airlines survive the next decade or so as it picks up momentum?

Of course they can. Or at least well run airlines will survive and those who were on a shoogly nail already may not but it won’t be anything to do with the global climate crisis, to use the correct terminology.

Doomsday conspiracy theories such as you might hear from some tube on a soap box in George Square are just that.

[1-11]

Buddyboy,

when you make an investment in anything, you will notice that, tucked away in the small print, is written, “past performance is not a guarantee of future returns”, or words to that effect.
We have all been brought up watching Dr. Who and Star Trek on TV, so we ‘know’ that 'everything' can be solved with science.
We always trust “science” to always come to our rescue.
The problem is, that “Hope” is not really something that you base plans on.
We are all hoping that some new technology will come along and save the day.
These hopes however, are not based in reality.
Having muddled through in the past is not a guarantee of muddling through in the future.

There is no known fuel out there that can provide the Energy output to Weight ratio of Jet fuel. Not in the quantity required.

Solar powered aircraft are lucky if they can get off the ground with a pilot on board.
Powering an electric plane off a battery is also a non starter. Batteries are simply too heavy for aircraft.
Tesla Inc. and various others have been trying to lighten batteries for years – with no success to date and no success foreseen in the future either.
Plenty of Hope for a breakthrough though !
Same goes for Hydrogen powered aircraft.
Yes, Hydrogen is a wonderful clean burning fuel, but needs to be liquified before it can be used as a fuel, ( unless of course you have a fuel tank the size of a Zeppelin ).
Liquid hydrogen is a very difficult and dangerous substance to work with.
The Russians experimented with this many years ago, I remember seeing a Tu-154 modified for it.
The cryogenic equipment was so heavy there was no room left on board for any meaningful payload.

What most people fail to, - or basically don’t want to - understand, is that the world is at a turning point.
“Renewable Energy” is not “renewable”. It needs Fossil fuel to support it. The promoters of renewable energy will never tell you that.
Your average Wind Turbine takes as much fossil fuel energy to make, as it will produce in its working lifetime. Don’t take my word for it – look it up !
At a fundamental level, our whole civilisation today is based on the burning of fossil fuels.
Hoping for some new technology to emerge, soon ! and in sufficient quantities to power or societies is not a plan.
We have handed over our Energy Policy to idealistic pre-pubescent schoolgirls who think that an industrialised society can be run off Unicorn farts.
Sorry Girls, we don’t have enough Unicorns, so you are not going on holiday.
If we as a society go down the Primrose Path of renewable energy, we will very soon find our lives being very much as they were in the past.
When I say the past , I mean closer to the 1840's than the 1960's.

Of course many people talking out of their gut feeling will ridicule this as doom mongering, but everything I am saying is backed up by scientific fact.
I’m a physicist and an engineer. I’ve got Bachelor and Masters degrees in this sh it.
Just because you don’t want to hear it, does not make it any less true.

The bottom line is this:
If we stop using Fossil Fuels, then society as we know it, is over.
Nuclear would allow us to get a railway system going, and a few electric buggies.
Sailing ships might make a comeback.
But for the bulk of the population, air travel would be over, and tourism would just die a death.
So, any air travel you want to do, you had better get done within the next 5 years.

PS. as for aviation and the Green Agenda, Government think tanks have already promoted the shutting down of all UK airports ( except LON, GLA, BFS ) by 2030, and then to abolish all air travel by 2050. ( Absolute Zero - UK FIRES Report 2019 )

[Clive]

PS. as for aviation and the Green Agenda, Government think tanks have already promoted the shutting down of all UK airports ( except LON, GLA, BFS ) by 2030, and then to abolish all air travel by 2050. ( Absolute Zero - UK FIRES Report 2019 )

Another think tank thinks Covid was a government control measure, that 5G masts give you halitosis and that Donald Trump was sane and able. All best ignored.

[buddyboy]

1-11. Thanks for your interesting reply.

So essentially what you are saying is we might as well give up now? All scientific advances are done, nothing will be able to be overcome, all the money being thrown at it is fruitless and I may as well buy a horse and cart?