Perfect Storm

[PiperOne]

I was watching an in-depth discussion with Thomas Flohr, Chairman of global charter company Vista Jet. His view is that electric flight, at a commercial level, is at least two decades away. In the meantime, VJT are moving across to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) which is made from renewable sources. Now, while not totally emission-free, it does reduce greenhouse gases by 80%, so very definitely worth having. However, it is likely to be more expensive than Jet A-1, but is not subject to the whims of OPEC.

Link to one of the providers, with more detailed info.
https://www.neste.com/products/all-prod ... B#a056543c

[1-11]

So essentially what you are saying is we might as well give up now?

No, Buddyboy, I'm not saying that.
We can still lead full and happy lives, get drunk, get married, have babies and all the other fun stuff.
What I would suggest though, is that we start using our fossil fuels much more wisely.
We need stewardship of our scarce resources, and we need to focus on reducing pollution.
Going Hell-Bent down the road of the Green Revolution ( electric cars, wind- and solar farms etc ) and while thinking all the time that we can maintain our current squanderous lifestyles is not the way to go. Building public transport like local tram systems would be a much better investment.

But staying on the Aviation theme, the future does not bode well for the mass air transport that we are accustomed to today.
I think we have reached the peak, and that it will shrink very rapidly from now on.

[hads]

Atuk, You ask if it can get any worse for the aviation industry ?

Well the fact is, this is just the beginning of things.
What you are highlighting Atuk, are just the manifestations of the previous Covid Lockdowns - the lack of staff, the lack of training for new personel etc. You cannot switch an Economy 'on' and 'off' like a light switch. There are lags. Infrastructure needs to be put into place.
What we will see in the coming months and years is a continuing decline of the Aviation sector.
I base my prognosis on two things, Money and Energy.

Now the more astute among us will realise that these are one and the same thing, but for the sake of clarity let us deal with them separately.
1). Money.
The average Joe ( or Joanna ) is getting poorer. This is because your money is being eroded through inflation, quicker than you can get a pay rise to compensate for the decline. Now, I know that some readers here have “a Bob or Two”, and regard themselves as relatively comfortable. Those of you in this position, are not the “average Joe”, you are the “above average Joe”. Nonetheless, even if you can still afford 4 jaunts abroad each year, that will soon be cut to 3 jaunts per year, and then 2.
Furthermore, because of point 2) below, people’s discretionary spending ( things like holidays and hobbies ) will decline as more of their income is devoted to paying for essentials like food, shelter and heating.

2). Energy.
This is really what it is all about.
In the past, Energy has been both cheap and abundant.
This is now no longer the case. The cost of Energy is going up. In fact it is going to go up and up and is going to keep on going up and up.
The reason for this is that our sources of energy are getting more difficult - and hence more expensive- to access. All the cheap and easy energy deposits have already been harvested, we are now moving on to the more inaccessible stuff.

These are just two fundamental points, but we must ( unfortunately ) also include the Taboo of politics in the mix.
Politically we have ostrasized Russia, ( not really a smart decision seeing as they are a major supplier of energy )
Suffice to say, that decisions made by politicians on things like taxation and subsidies play a significant role too.
Social engineering is also in play : You have “got to be Seen to be Green”, otherwise you are considered a Pariah. Flying is polluting the air and stuff like that.
Our delusional politicians believe that Fossil Fuels can simply be replaced by Renewables and that life will continue just as before.

So, it’s a double or triple “Whammy” of people having less money, and airline costs increasing.
This only leads to one conclusion – More airlines going to the wall and less flying for everyone.

Ryanair’s O’Leary is now saying that fares are too low and that they will need to rise over the next five years. Although he claims that the age of the era of “low fare flying is not over” , I disagree.

As our economy continues to decline, the Aviation sector will decline faster.

If both Easyjet and Ryanair are going to survive at all, they will have to shed at least 75% of their aircraft and staff. British Airways will be nationalised, an ad-hoc charter airline might also survive.
That’s about it.

A pretty decent post. lots of information and opinion included. Im a glass half full type of boy. I read and acknowledge your opinions. The scenario where Travel on a discetionary basis becomes redundant is not one I share.
The world is going through a Reset. I didnt think when Covid started that the Reset was actually a thing but here we are slap bang in the middle of it.
The HUGE concern is going to be Energy. You are spot on with that. You talk about AVERAGE Joe. I think we should think about below average Joe. In Scotland, there are thousands in this demographic. Its going to be a brick wall for them if energy remains at the current level, nevermind additional increases.
How are they going to heat their homes? Many currently on benefits. Many using Power cards. This is going to be an absolute disaster come October.
Who pays for their heating? They cant.
Governments can only do so much. And I mean ANY Government. If Energy Costs increase it will lead to people choosing between Heat or essentials. I honestly think that we are about to witness huge unrest here and Abroad. It hasnt happened yet because its not cold enough. Just wait....

[atuk]

Reading these posts and views with interest.

Like Hads I’m an optimist rather than a pessimist but don't wear rose coloured spectacles.

Yes discretionary spending will take an almighty hit come autumn: ONS recent data suggests this is already happening. Any spend will be need to have rather than want to have so like, back in the 1980s, white goods, furniture and house moves will all take a hit. In some ways this may benefit the economy almost of these goods are imported and lower exchange rate will increase overall costs.

Against that an increase rate may help savers but of course impact borrowers adversely. Discretional spend on travel has always been resilient and bounced back after 9/11, 2008 financial crisis and folks will still wish to get away even if for shorter breaks not necessarily two weeks.

Regarding energy watch this space for backtracking on Climate Change! Civil unrest or ease of restrictions -that’s what politicians will face and guess which option they will choose. Continental Europe will face many other additional costs regards Russian gas, or lack thereof, and although some have more resources than others chickens will come home to roost.

My personal tack, which may not suit many, is that we must use all our resources, gas, coal and nuclear to generate sufficient electricity until we can move gradually to cleaner, greener fuels.

The aviation industry has already made huge strides in fuel efficiency, noise reduction and seat rate costs which could never be compared to the early jets, early wide bodies and knocks spots of first generation short and medium haul aircrafts. Neos and Max; A350 and 787; next generation 777s will all play their role in reducing emissions delivering lower seat mile costs versus greater range.

On a personal level I’ve tested negative again so normal service resumes as of 0400 tomorrow, at least that one less on the absent list to help service our industry’s needs.

[Clive]

Must admit I’m not at all comfortable with all this QANON stuff.

But since you are all so interested in making political statements, Scotland already produces around 90% of our electricity from renewable sources. When we are independent we will have our own energy policies and of course we will be rich in oil and gas which will still be producing over the decades while we run that down in a sustainable fashion and transition into a global renewable energy centre of excellence.

Governments of the future independent Scotland won’t have policies that make people poorer. That’s because Scotland isn’t right wing.

BTW, in Morrisons in Gibraltar a litre of petrol is around £1.20. In Morrisons in Wakefield it’s nearer £2.00 a litre. It’s the same petrol. The different is the tax take by the governments.

And the first and second removals of the energy price cap by the Westminster Tory government which two of our Tories are alluding to is a direct attack on every man, woman and child in the UK, designed to make the energy companies even richer and their tax revenues greater. It’s the opposite of an energy policy that is designed to help the people the government serve.

And finally, there will never again be any nuclear power stations in Scotland. So forget that idea.

And now a moderator note: if this kicks off I’ll simply delete the thread.

[buddyboy]

Interested to know Clive on the following points.

1. How on earth do you manage to bring independence into this debate?

2. What if not nuclear provides your base load when you transition to a purely renewable infrastructure? Or indeed at times of peak demand?

3. You infer that the Scottish government would reduce tax once independent... We are currently the highest taxed part of the UK. Please square that circle for me.

[Clive]

Interested to know Clive on the following points.

1. How on earth do you manage to bring independence into this debate?

2. What if not nuclear provides your base load when you transition to a purely renewable infrastructure? Or indeed at times of peak demand?

3. You infer that the Scottish government would reduce tax once independent... We are currently the highest taxed part of the UK. Please square that circle for me.

1. People were talking about future energy policies. It is illegitimate to discuss future energy policy without acknowledging the fact that Scotland might well be taking its own path. To talk as if we won’t be independent is exactly the same as me pointing out we probably will be.

2. Same as all other countries that don’t have nuclear power stations.

3. That statement is wholly inaccurate. More people pay less tax here than they do in other UK countries, per capita. Scotland will collect taxes from companies operating here and tax dodgers and not those who genuinely can’t afford to live. We won’t be using Tory Britain as a glorious example, that’s for sure.

[buddyboy]

Clive I'm not getting into the independence debate, you seem to manage to bring it to nearly every thread you comment on and I think I speak for many when I say I'm tired of it.

[Clive]

Clive I'm not getting into the independence debate, you seem to manage to bring it to nearly every thread you comment on and I think I speak for many when I say I'm tired of it.

Great. I don’t want you to debate it. But it’s just as taboo as folks talking like it isn’t happening. If Scottish Independence is the elephant in the room then so is talk of a Scottish future chained to broken Brexit Britain. It works both ways. That’s why politics is banned altogether.

Funny how that’s what you’ve focussed on and not the QANON nonsense. 1-11 probably shouldn’t be allowed to use this group for his, her’s or their preachings as it’s never going to end well. Just like their anti-trans bull in a previous guise, one wrong word and it’ll be curtains.

Since I banned politics many months ago I haven’t mentioned Indy despite all that has been going on, and I don’t need any guidance on my conduct from you or anyone else.

[hads]

Rather informative. As an Indy supporter, and a moderator on here, no one is allowed to discuss the Nation apart from you.
You can spout your beliefs but threaten to drown debate if people dont agree with you.
Sounds very familiar.