LM drop GLA-SOU

[Bearsden]

2023 v 2022

EDI-BHX 214,327 +42,826 +25%
GLA-BHX 163,724 -19,796 -11%

EDI-SOU 89,058 +7,426 +9%
GLA-SOU 87,044 +12,212 +16%

The impact of easyJet's Bristol operation should be taken into account
EDI-BRS 422,825 +126,208 +43%
GLA-BRS 295,945 +5,283 +2%

[Clive]

Lack of demand too, it seems. We used to have regular flights to the likes of NWI, CWL, MAN, LBA and more. If no one wants to fly to/from Glasgow and these places it doesn’t make sense to provide flights.

We could note that a certain airport at the other end of the M8 doesn't have flights to three of these destinations anymore either, so not an issue specific to just GLA.

It may be true that fights to close by cities like Leeds and Manchester are gone because of better rail links and many companies being less keen on very short flights for sustainability reasons. However, I'm not sure lack of demand to Southampton is the main issue - numbers to SOU are a bit down on the pre-covid BE days (iirc from about 12 to 14k per month to about 9k per month), but it's quite possible the higher faress on LM versus BE are the factor here. Moreover current EDI-SOU numbers appear v similar to GLA, if not a bit less sometimes.

BHX numbers may be a little down on pre-covid, but overall the total traffic from the two central belt airports to BHX is not wildly lower. What's happened this winter is that a vast chunk of the GLA traffic appears to have moved East because of a poor and limited schedule at GLA. Again the question that arises is as to why there's such a large discrepancy in frequency and capacity from easyJet on GLA-BHX in summer versus winter when it's a route that hasn't generally shown itself to be particularly seasonal in the past?

Those who blame GLA’s management when a route fails or airlines don’t start because they see no business case forget that it’s a two way street. The loss of a GLA service will often be felt worse at the other city with the smaller airport. Routes like these need support at both ends. But I fully agree about fares and frequencies. Loganair have a knack of killing routes stone dead with the wrong aircraft requiring sky high fares and therefore appealing only to a fraction of the potential market. On the other hand, the likes of Ryanair will make any of these routes work even with their headline fare of £16.

And sadly for GLA bosses if airlines are looking to consolidate Scottish services and everyone, whether travelling to or from Scotland, is happy to use EGPH then that is what will always happen.

[egpffqtv]

I think there's a lot to be said about the people running the show rather than the airlines themselves...

Hear hear. I’ve been saying this for years. Glad others are finally catching up.

Lack of demand too, it seems. We used to have regular flights to the likes of NWI, CWL, MAN, LBA and more. If no one wants to fly to/from Glasgow and these places it doesn’t make sense to provide flights.

Do you apply that same logic to EWR, JFK, MCO, YHZ, YYC etc too? No one wants to fly to/from GLA to these places?

[Clive]

Hear hear. I’ve been saying this for years. Glad others are finally catching up.

Lack of demand too, it seems. We used to have regular flights to the likes of NWI, CWL, MAN, LBA and more. If no one wants to fly to/from Glasgow and these places it doesn’t make sense to provide flights.

Do you apply that same logic to EWR, JFK, MCO, YHZ, YYC etc too? No one wants to fly to/from GLA to these places?

Well that would depend on the old argument about one market or two. If it’s all the one market then we are right royally stuffed. Realistically I’d say the longer the flight the larger the catchment area.

[egpffqtv]

Lack of demand too, it seems. We used to have regular flights to the likes of NWI, CWL, MAN, LBA and more. If no one wants to fly to/from Glasgow and these places it doesn’t make sense to provide flights.

Do you apply that same logic to EWR, JFK, MCO, YHZ, YYC etc too? No one wants to fly to/from GLA to these places?

Well that would depend on the old argument about one market or two. If it’s all the one market then we are right royally stuffed. Realistically I’d say the longer the flight the larger the catchment area.

Sorry, don’t follow this latest logic. Please explain how this differs from what you said previously?

[Clive]

Do you apply that same logic to EWR, JFK, MCO, YHZ, YYC etc too? No one wants to fly to/from GLA to these places?

Well that would depend on the old argument about one market or two. If it’s all the one market then we are right royally stuffed. Realistically I’d say the longer the flight the larger the catchment area.

Sorry, don’t follow this latest logic. Please explain how this differs from what you said previously?

Because if it’s all the one market then airliners will flock to EGPH to serve it and GLA will have no say in the matter. Thank goodness some airlines still see merit in using GLA to some degree, like FI, W6, U2, TS, BA, LS, EK, LH and KL. Not saying LM because if it wasn’t for the lifeline services who knows how small they’d be here….

[southflyer]

Because if it’s all the one market then airliners will flock to EGPH to serve it and GLA will have no say in the matter.

That's exactly what's happened, though. Otherwise you would be implying that all demand from the US to GLA has magically disappeared in the last few years and thus there is no market left to serve.

Thank goodness some airlines still see merit in using GLA to some degree, like FI, W6, U2, TS, BA, LS, EK, LH and KL.

The difference between the carriers you mentioned are the ones serving Glasgow's catchment and the ones serving Scotland. Wizz, for example, has never operated from GLA and EDI simultaneously. TS still exists because of low-yield VFR traffic to Canada.

Not saying LM because if it wasn’t for the lifeline services who knows how small they’d be here….

On the same token, I genuinely wonder if GLA would even be an EZY base if it weren't for domestics.

[Clive]

Because if it’s all the one market then airliners will flock to EGPH to serve it and GLA will have no say in the matter.

That's exactly what's happened, though. Otherwise you would be implying that all demand from the US to GLA has magically disappeared in the last few years and thus there is no market left to serve.

Thank goodness some airlines still see merit in using GLA to some degree, like FI, W6, U2, TS, BA, LS, EK, LH and KL.

The difference between the carriers you mentioned are the ones serving Glasgow's catchment and the ones serving Scotland. Wizz, for example, has never operated from GLA and EDI simultaneously. TS still exists because of low-yield VFR traffic to Canada.

Not saying LM because if it wasn’t for the lifeline services who knows how small they’d be here….

On the same token, I genuinely wonder if GLA would even be an EZY base if it weren't for domestics.

Agreed. So this is how the cookie has crumbled. It’s no one’s fault or one airport operator or manager being better or worse than their rival. It’s just the business realities of how the industry has grown and matured since deregulation and EGPH ideally located to serve the tourist destination of Edinburgh as well as much of Scotland.

I’ve been saying for years, the single best thing GLA bosses could do for growth and market share is get a Ryanair base which if looked after properly could host 2 or even up to 3 million pax per year. If there one airlines who could attract pax to an airport on the wrong side of a river or wrong side of a small country, it’s Ryanair.

[Iain]

I think it's quite unfortunate that we seem to come to an absolutist viewpoint with regard to this discussion, when the situation and evidence on the ground pretty clearly suggests that such an absolutist view probably isnt particularly correct or realistic.

Surely most of us see that the reality is far more nuanced than that? Of course the catchments (and by extension markets) overlap and interact, with many people in the West willing to fly from Edinburgh to get cheaper or direct flights and to some extent also vice versa. However even this is nuanced and clearly varies in terms of the destination and length of flight. I doubt many people are prepared to travel to EDI to catch a flight to London, but it is worth making that journey if it's only place with a direct flight to NYC.

This suggestion that it's one market also appears to be accompanied by the implication thats this is inalienable and completely outwith the gift of airport operators to influence - and thus they're not in any way accountable or responsible for the airlines/routes/pax numbers at the airport. Its pretty clear that this is erroneus. For instance, GIP at EDI have clearly sought over the last 10-15 yrs to bring Glasgow city centre into the Edinburgh catchment, both in the minds of pax and airlines. The main way they've done that is by sponsoring and encouraging a high frequency direct bus service from Glasgow city centre to EDI, which quite clearly is carrying hundreds of thousands of passengers from the heart of the GLA catchment to EDI's front door. As such they have clearly, influenced, manipulated and reshaped the market by their actions.

Indeed, as mentioned, if those in charge at GLA could attract Ryanair a large FR base this would boost passenger numbers and pull them back to GLA - which proves that the management do have agency, actually are accountable and can influence and manipulate the market to their advantage.

[Clive]

I think it's quite unfortunate that we seem to come to an absolutist viewpoint with regard to this discussion, when the situation and evidence on the ground pretty clearly suggests that such an absolutist view probably isnt particularly correct or realistic.

Surely most of us see that the reality is far more nuanced than that? Of course the catchments (and by extension markets) overlap and interact, with many people in the West willing to fly from Edinburgh to get cheaper or direct flights and to some extent also vice versa. However even this is nuanced and clearly varies in terms of the destination and length of flight. I doubt many people are prepared to travel to EDI to catch a flight to London, but it is worth making that journey if it's only place with a direct flight to NYC.

This suggestion that it's one market also appears to be accompanied by the implication thats this is inalienable and completely outwith the gift of airport operators to influence - and thus they're not in any way accountable or responsible for the airlines/routes/pax numbers at the airport. Its pretty clear that this is erroneus. For instance, GIP at EDI have clearly sought over the last 10-15 yrs to bring Glasgow city centre into the Edinburgh catchment, both in the minds of pax and airlines. The main way they've done that is by sponsoring and encouraging a high frequency direct bus service from Glasgow city centre to EDI, which quite clearly is carrying hundreds of thousands of passengers from the heart of the GLA catchment to EDI's front door. As such they have clearly, influenced, manipulated and reshaped the market by their actions.

Indeed, as mentioned, if those in charge at GLA could attract Ryanair a large FR base this would boost passenger numbers and pull them back to GLA - which proves that the management do have agency, actually are accountable and can influence and manipulate the market to their advantage.

Yes this is far more like it. But when budget flights boomed and suddenly enabled European point to point services, EGPH was ideally placed to capitalise. This in turn made it extra difficult for GLA compared to similar airports. PIK being Ryanair’s base compounded that no end and no one should forget the at 20 years ago the government’s air connectivity aid scheme helped airlines start route at EDI which were not applicable from GLA because PIK had services to airports with those cities in their name like Milan, Rome, Oslo, Stockholm, etc.

Nowadays we see weaker demand from GLA than EDI on competing flights because of frequencies and fares on top of everything we’ve noted above.

But to this layperson’s pov the second shortcoming (after not having a FR base) is not having any public transport to Edinburgh above annything and indeed every city from Carlisle to Aberdeen.