Furlough

[hads]

Im sure the scientific experts have made that decision based on visible facts. I appreciate that for the aviation world its very frustrating. But there are far bigger issues to face than aviation. The economic fallout from this could be catastrophic. Aviation is important of course but as Im sure you will appreciate, its 80% based on discretional travel. I want to go to Spain. But I cant do that unless I quarantine for two weeks. So Im not going to Spain.The High Street and what it faces , is my biggest concern. There are going to be multiple vacant premises all over the land.Massive job losses . The economy is going to be hit in a massive way. Partly due as well of course to certain Businesses using the pandemic as an excuse to Cull. In my sector, the outlook; been declining since the arrival of the internet, is dysmal. Job cuts every day. Factories shutting. So yes, aviation , whilst close to your heart, is not alone. We all face a horrendous time.
A bright spot for you chaps though is that soon enough people will start travelling again. Lots of businesses elsewhere will be closed terminally by then , never to return. You have a future. Some others dont have that luxury.

[Clive]

Im sure the scientific experts have made that decision based on visible facts. I appreciate that for the aviation world its very frustrating. But there are far bigger issues to face than aviation. The economic fallout from this could be catastrophic. Aviation is important of course but as Im sure you will appreciate, its 80% based on discretional travel. I want to go to Spain. But I cant do that unless I quarantine for two weeks. So Im not going to Spain.The High Street and what it faces , is my biggest concern. There are going to be multiple vacant premises all over the land.Massive job losses . The economy is going to be hit in a massive way. Partly due as well of course to certain Businesses using the pandemic as an excuse to Cull. In my sector, the outlook; been declining since the arrival of the internet, is dysmal. Job cuts every day. Factories shutting. So yes, aviation , whilst close to your heart, is not alone. We all face a horrendous time.
A bright spot for you chaps though is that soon enough people will start travelling again. Lots of businesses elsewhere will be closed terminally by then , never to return. You have a future. Some others dont have that luxury.

I agree but even more important is to save lives. At least when people are alive they have done kind of chance. When they’re dead it’s pretty much all over.

[atuk]

[quote=hads post_id=730 time=<a href="tel:1592557533">1592557533</a> user_id=150]
Im sure the scientific experts have made that decision based on visible facts. I appreciate that for the aviation world its very frustrating. But there are far bigger issues to face than aviation. The economic fallout from this could be catastrophic. Aviation is important of course but as Im sure you will appreciate, its 80% based on discretional travel. I want to go to Spain. But I cant do that unless I quarantine for two weeks. So Im not going to Spain.The High Street and what it faces , is my biggest concern. There are going to be multiple vacant premises all over the land.Massive job losses . The economy is going to be hit in a massive way. Partly due as well of course to certain Businesses using the pandemic as an excuse to Cull. In my sector, the outlook; been declining since the arrival of the internet, is dysmal. Job cuts every day. Factories shutting. So yes, aviation , whilst close to your heart, is not alone. We all face a horrendous time.
A bright spot for you chaps though is that soon enough people will start travelling again. Lots of businesses elsewhere will be closed terminally by then , never to return. You have a future. Some others dont have that luxury.

I agree but even more important is to save lives. At least when people are alive they have done kind of chance. When they’re dead it’s pretty much all over.
[/quote]

Clive and Hads I fully agree with your statements; my previous posts in another section related to the wider economy. It’s grim: granted not as grim as losing a loved one- one of my former bosses from almost thirty years ago died from Covid 19 on 8th June and he is a couple of years younger than me.

What I said was a depression, perhaps not recession. That itself indicates a far worse scenario. Those left In work will have less disposable income, those looking for work will face even stiffer competition for less job vacancies, potentially higher taxation either direct or indirect and to cap it all today financial statements have been released showing details that Britain’s overall debt to exceed the total of its economy. This can’t continue otherwise we shall have economic disaster staring us in the face with public sector cuts looming as councils receive less income,banks impacted by bad debt and so it goes on.

I’m more than aware of the impact of this virus and the trail of destruction it is wreaking on peoples health, wealth and livelihoods.

[bill]

Im sure the scientific experts have made that decision based on visible facts. I appreciate that for the aviation world its very frustrating. But there are far bigger issues to face than aviation. The economic fallout from this could be catastrophic. Aviation is important of course but as Im sure you will appreciate, its 80% based on discretional travel. I want to go to Spain. But I cant do that unless I quarantine for two weeks. So Im not going to Spain.The High Street and what it faces , is my biggest concern. There are going to be multiple vacant premises all over the land.Massive job losses . The economy is going to be hit in a massive way. Partly due as well of course to certain Businesses using the pandemic as an excuse to Cull. In my sector, the outlook; been declining since the arrival of the internet, is dysmal. Job cuts every day. Factories shutting. So yes, aviation , whilst close to your heart, is not alone. We all face a horrendous time.
A bright spot for you chaps though is that soon enough people will start travelling again. Lots of businesses elsewhere will be closed terminally by then , never to return. You have a future. Some others dont have that luxury.

Good post Hads and I fully agree.It will be interesting to say the least how many of my customers are still in business as our 'core' market has always been aligned to the smaller,independent high street stores.They've had a tough enough time fighting of the competition from the internet and then having to close entirely due to the Covid-19 outbreak.I feel desperately sorry for those who had outlets in the Intu shopping centres too.They must wonder what's coming next?

[atuk]

At last some chinks of brightness beginning to appear with Covid figures decreasing.

Today’s business report advises that shoppers are beginning to spend again now that shopping centres and non essential business are opening up, a sign that some airline services across all of the U.K. are beginning to return or increase frequency a little more than expected so some of the job cuts may be less severe than originally forecast.

Axes will be swung, however, but one thing this pandemic has shown, aside from obvious health measures, is good business and bad business.

Those businesses who have treated their workforce well including returning or refusing government loans or those, like in Leicester, who have treated their workers like slaves whilst at the same time impacting public health.

A chat with close friends retired from the medical profession over a few wines and snacks on Saturday evening, revealed that not all countries statistics are telling the whole story. One if the worst countries where the pandemic is rife is Romania. Therefore the news from Herefordshire is not quite as surprising given that. I’ll wait to see how this impacts Angus where there is a large population in the fruit farming community.

Meantime, for me, mask up, uniform on and catch train to Manchesterland for work later this week and next.

[baystate]

A chat with close friends retired from the medical profession over a few wines and snacks on Saturday evening, revealed that not all countries statistics are telling the whole story.

There are three kinds of lies...

So a relatively simple piece of maths goes like this:
R = 2.5, which is the number of extra people who are infected by any one person. Assume this has maintained constant throughout the virus lifecycle.
T = 10, which is the number of days during which additional people can be infected by any one carrier of the disease. Assume this has also maintained constant throughout the virus lifecycle.

So, if you think through the exponential spread of the virus since 'discovery' (as measured by first likely case) in mid-November, the virus has had nearly 23 cycles of expansion, such that the resulting number of cases should be 2.5^23. That's 1.42 billion, or somewhere around 20% of global population. Manipulating R and T results in a range of results from not very scary to really nightmarish.

If you change T to 10, the number is a somewhat less staggering 8.4 million. If you change R to 2.5 (which is closer to where it was before lockdowns, etc), and use T=10, then the exponential result is 1.42 billion.

I'm not a virologist by any means, but I am a cynic of government motivations on this. So I do think that it is distinctly likely that:
- significant variation in recording globally has led to massive under-reporting of both cases and deaths
- manipulation of statistics by governments has led to significant misunderstanding of the problem throughout its lifecycle, and remains a problem today

For my case in point, does any really believe that China, the epicentre of the pandemic, really only had 85k cases and 4.5k deaths?

[atuk]

Now extended until end of October. Will there be any aviation industry left by then?

[big ears]

Extended till end of November......

[atuk]

Extended till end of November......

Too late for myself and hundreds of my EDI colleagues. We are out as of 29/10/20 a mix of voluntary and compulsory redundancy.

I don’t know how many have gone from GLA but the impact on Menzies, Swissport, GIP and companies such as Omniserve and Empark has been severe.

I hoped that my “Prime” to quote Miss Brodie would have lasted a couple of years longer however that’s not to be.

As The Beatles time honoured song says “will you still need me, will you still love me when I’m sixty four! For me the answer is No.

[bill]

Extended till end of November......

Too late for myself and hundreds of my EDI colleagues. We are out as of 29/10/20 a mix of voluntary and compulsory redundancy.

I don’t know how many have gone from GLA but the impact on Menzies, Swissport, GIP and companies such as Omniserve and Empark has been severe.

I hoped that my “Prime” to quote Miss Brodie would have lasted a couple of years longer however that’s not to be.

As The Beatles time honoured song says “will you still need me, will you still love me when I’m sixty four! For me the answer is No.

I really hate to be pedantic atuk but the Beatles actually sang,"Will you still need me, will you still feed me when I'm sixty four?".
Sympathetic to the rest of your post though.