Corona virus and its effects on GLA

[Allen McL]

Any of you bothered to look at deaths from Flu in the last 12 months?

I asked that question the other day and yet to find the answer. I'm particularly interested to know what (if any) impact, social distancing, sanitising and face coverings have had on the numbers.

[bill]

Gentlemen, by all means debate the current Covid-19 situation but the minute this gets politically personal or folks perceive it to be personal it will be locked. Since the inception of this forum it's been relatively politics free and therefore, bliss. The forum will remain bliss for all users going forward, just saying like.

[Clive]

Further to Bill’s warning we have had to remove a follow up post from 2-post user “pioneer” who welcomed the intervention of our moderating team then went on to make a series of political points in what could only be described as an irony overload.

If he responds negatively towards the moderating team “pioneer” will receive a yellow card.

[Clive]

Any of you bothered to look at deaths from Flu in the last 12 months?

I asked that question the other day and yet to find the answer. I'm particularly interested to know what (if any) impact, social distancing, sanitising and face coverings have had on the numbers.

I’ve not had a cold, a sore throat or a sniffle for a year. I bet most folks haven’t. Just goes to show how not mixing with anyone doesn’t just keep COVID-19 at bay. The measures will have kept all contagious ailments at bay.

[jetblue497]

Any of you bothered to look at deaths from Flu in the last 12 months?

https://www.businessinsider.com/flu-has ... 021-1?op=1

Highlights - lowest impact in 130 years
- 95% less than last year

Those are for England but would suspect it will be UK wide.

Similar numbers from US - 292 deaths till mid January - over 90% drop from average

[Exasperated]

The figures speak for themselves. It’s ten time worse in England than it is in Scotland. That’s why we don’t follow the lead of Boris and his crew here in Scotland. Our government has its own expert advisors. Ergo we will be opening up the economy more cautiously as the virus prevalence dictates.

I wouldn’t have it any other way.

For the last seven days, the rate per 100,000 people testing positive is 104.7 in Scotland and 122.7 in England. Both went into lockdown at the same time in early January. Restrictions have been virtually the same since March 2020. Are you telling me that data is a result of better leadership?

Ok I shouldn’t have said ten times worse. I’m only trying to impart that our government doesn’t follow what England does because our government is responsible for public health control here, and vice versa. It’s not as if we bother ourselves with Covid control restrictions in Belgium or Belize.

So far in England 107k or 0.191% of the population have died from having the Covid 19 infection.

The figure for Scotland is 7k or 0.127% .

Still far too many. I think we should have closed borders and had a total lockdown right at the start. If borders had remained closed we’d have domestic normality like they do in New Zealand. They can’t go abroad on holiday but they are still alive and can do everything else that they normally do.

BTW what Exasperated was trying to say is disingenuous. He said more people in England get tested so more cases are found. For most of the last year one only went to get a test if they felt they had symptoms. The fact that fewer people per head of population in Scotland had symptoms so never went for a test cannot be used as SNPBaad fake news.

Finally, it’s funny how party political revelations are exposed among our members when surely we all want the same things - to not lose loved ones and for the country to get out of Covid as unscathed as possible and return to normal all the sooner.

Sorry I was not trying to be disingenuous. There are a significant number of asymptomatic people out there and the more you test the more you find. The ONS estimate around 1 in 50 in early Jan which is three time the number of positive tests reported same period.

On a slightly separate note and not pointing any fingers take care when talking about number of COVID deaths especially recent ones. The COVID deaths are those who die for any reason within 28 days of a positive COVID test. As hospital admissions are all tested this means that if you are admitted for any reason e.g. accident/stroke and are one of the 1 in 50 who are positive then die you will be counted as a COVID death even if the death is not related.

Conversely there has been a jump in suicides as a result of lockdown combined with mental health issues and also due to delayed cancer diagnosis/treatment (I know from bitter experience from both of these) which are not counted but are directly due to COVID. These will continue long after COVID deaths are under control. I hesitate to say end here as we just don't know the long term impact.

I consider the excess deaths count which compares the 2021 numbers by week against the five year average for 2015 to 2019 as a better estimate and they are now about 20% lower on average. This applies throughout the UK as all countries use the same methodology.

This is also the reason you cannot directly compare different countries outside the UK numbers (eg Worldometers) as each have a different method of measurement.

As a statistician I despair sometimes in the way that ALL politicians use these numbers as gospel or to their political ends. Every pressure groups seems to want "Me first" in the vaccination queue but the number are clear, age and severe underlying health issues are the main drivers, and governments should not reprioritise as delaying in treating the over 50s, which makes up something like 97% of excess deaths to vaccinate a perfectly healthy under 30 year old will cost lives.

You can probably guess that I have spent many hours analysing these numbers and I am sure many a PhD will be based on all sorts of dicing and slicing the data but we should not forget the impact that each and every death has on families and communities.

Stay safe

Ex

[Clive]

Sorry I was not trying to be disingenuous. There are a significant number of asymptomatic people out there and the more you test the more you find. The ONS estimate around 1 in 50 in early Jan which is three time the number of positive tests reported same period.

On a slightly separate note and not pointing any fingers take care when talking about number of COVID deaths especially recent ones. The COVID deaths are those who die for any reason within 28 days of a positive COVID test. As hospital admissions are all tested this means that if you are admitted for any reason e.g. accident/stroke and are one of the 1 in 50 who are positive then die you will be counted as a COVID death even if the death is not related.

Conversely there has been a jump in suicides as a result of lockdown combined with mental health issues and also due to delayed cancer diagnosis/treatment (I know from bitter experience from both of these) which are not counted but are directly due to COVID. These will continue long after COVID deaths are under control. I hesitate to say end here as we just don't know the long term impact.

I consider the excess deaths count which compares the 2021 numbers by week against the five year average for 2015 to 2019 as a better estimate and they are now about 20% lower on average. This applies throughout the UK as all countries use the same methodology.

This is also the reason you cannot directly compare different countries outside the UK numbers (eg Worldometers) as each have a different method of measurement.

As a statistician I despair sometimes in the way that ALL politicians use these numbers as gospel or to their political ends. Every pressure groups seems to want "Me first" in the vaccination queue but the number are clear, age and severe underlying health issues are the main drivers, and governments should not reprioritise as delaying in treating the over 50s, which makes up something like 97% of excess deaths to vaccinate a perfectly healthy under 30 year old will cost lives.

You can probably guess that I have spent many hours analysing these numbers and I am sure many a PhD will be based on all sorts of dicing and slicing the data but we should not forget the impact that each and every death has on families and communities.

Stay safe

Ex

Thank you for the change of tone. Fully agree with this. Yes there’s lots of asymptomatic people out there. As I said for most of the past year only it was mostly only people with symptoms who put themselves forward for a test so I would say my point stands.

Here’s a graphic illustrating purely the excess death rates in some countries. Obviously I can’t verify the data and offer no warranty on it.

https://ibb.co/5MtcwKr

[jetblue497]

As a statistician I despair sometimes in the way that ALL politicians use these numbers as gospel or to their political ends.

The add a little emphasis on "the numbers" it is clear that you can use/misuse numbers to suit your agenda. I have to put a disclaimer here as some will claim these are not real numbers - the following is for illustrative purposes only!!

Lets say that for every 1000 infections there is 1 death. With the new, more infectious variant there are now 1500 infections and the death jump to 1.5. That is clearly an increase in deaths but NOT, in any way shape or form increase the death rate. There are those who realize this but just and many who will say we are doomed even more than before. Lets say the deaths for that 1500 is 1.3 - the gap between more deadly or not is likely to be more marked - its just the way human perception works. Of course if the number jumped to 1.6 then clearly the more deadly is real. Thankfully the most recent numbers favour the 1.3 scenario but it suits some groups agenda to use the increase in actual deaths and not the decrease in death rate.

Kind of long winded way to show that numbers mean different things to different people and while being accurate misuse does nothing but add more stress to an already stressful situation - and its not just politicians.

Finally - we have had a litany of "experts" for a year. How many people can be considered experts when their favourite words are "I/we do not know"?

[Clive]

As a statistician I despair sometimes in the way that ALL politicians use these numbers as gospel or to their political ends.

The add a little emphasis on "the numbers" it is clear that you can use/misuse numbers to suit your agenda. I have to put a disclaimer here as some will claim these are not real numbers - the following is for illustrative purposes only!!

Lets say that for every 1000 infections there is 1 death. With the new, more infectious variant there are now 1500 infections and the death jump to 1.5. That is clearly an increase in deaths but NOT, in any way shape or form increase the death rate. There are those who realize this but just and many who will say we are doomed even more than before. Lets say the deaths for that 1500 is 1.3 - the gap between more deadly or not is likely to be more marked - its just the way human perception works. Of course if the number jumped to 1.6 then clearly the more deadly is real. Thankfully the most recent numbers favour the 1.3 scenario but it suits some groups agenda to use the increase in actual deaths and not the decrease in death rate.

Kind of long winded way to show that numbers mean different things to different people and while being accurate misuse does nothing but add more stress to an already stressful situation - and its not just politicians.

Finally - we have had a litany of "experts" for a year. How many people can be considered experts when their favourite words are "I/we do not know"?

To be fair, when the virus kicked off there were many unknowns. Globally unknown, not just in Scotland. When it mutated there were more unknowns. Right now there are unknowns because schools have never gone back with the new Kent strain at 90%, amongst other things.

So the experts know the best that anyone can know and all we can do is what they tell us IMO.

[Clive]

GLA introduces rapid Covid testing facilities

https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/news/191 ... acilities/