Interesting thoughts on post Brexit air industry.

[Allen McL]

Loganair's Jonathan Hinkles gives his thoughts on what's currently being experienced by UK based freight haulers, since our departure from the European Union. No surprises at all.

https://www.ft.com/content/bb3b3dc5-95e ... d3ea90322e

[jetblue497]

Loganair's Jonathan Hinkles gives his thoughts on what's currently being experienced by UK based freight haulers, since our departure from the European Union. No surprises at all.

https://www.ft.com/content/bb3b3dc5-95e ... d3ea90322e

After using google to get round the paywall..........
Its not just freight haulers - its all aspects of aviation (see the France to Morocco example). The TARDIS has pushed us back 30 years commercially - I just wish it made ME 30 years younger...

[1-11]

I think that many people are still in Denial about this.
I like Jonathan Hinkle’s analogy, BC ( Before Covid ) and AD ( After Doomsday ), it shows good humour tempered with dry touch of realism.
The AD air travel industry will be totally different to that of BC.
Carriers like Loganair are getting off with a black eye. The only thing holding them back is Lockdown. Their business, which really amounts to essential travel for these communities, will return as soon as Lockdown is lifted.
For the next few years, international Business travel upon which many of the Legacy carriers depend, will be Over and Out. Each country will probably re-nationalise their “National Carrier”. BA in our case.
Leisure travel, á la Ryanair and Easyjet, will be significantly curtailed. I have a sneaky suspicion that one of this pair will go broke. Their business model, ( low fares and jam-packed aircraft ) does not hold up in the post-Covid world. Firstly because nobody wants to sit cheek-by-jowl in a tin can full of potential deadly disease carriers, and second because air-fares will no longer be low.
In addition, and what is not even being considered at this point in time, is that economies all over the world, the UK included, have just taken a massive hit. The UK GDP is said to be down 5% yoy.
This drop in economc activity will be reflected in a much higher %-age drop in overall discretionary spending. Sure, we may see a short stimulus derived blip in spending next year, but longer term, each and every one of us is going to be poorer. Wages are dropping, unemployment is increasing, and soon taxes will go up too. Now I know that many here will argue that they are just gaging to get on holiday again, and I count myself among that group, but the reality is that with money in short supply, fewer people will be able to afford it. As fewer and fewer afford it, fewer and fewer fly, as fewer people fly, prices inevitably need to rise to cover costs. The same goes for the number of destinations being served, that number must also decrease simply because many routes will become unviable.

For many people, Holiday in Saltcoats will start looking like the only option, the posher ones might just make it to Blackpool.

[Clive]

I think that many people are still in Denial about this.
I like Jonathan Hinkle’s analogy, BC ( Before Covid ) and AD ( After Doomsday ), it shows good humour tempered with dry touch of realism.
The AD air travel industry will be totally different to that of BC.
Carriers like Loganair are getting off with a black eye. The only thing holding them back is Lockdown. Their business, which really amounts to essential travel for these communities, will return as soon as Lockdown is lifted.
For the next few years, international Business travel upon which many of the Legacy carriers depend, will be Over and Out. Each country will probably re-nationalise their “National Carrier”. BA in our case.
Leisure travel, á la Ryanair and Easyjet, will be significantly curtailed. I have a sneaky suspicion that one of this pair will go broke. Their business model, ( low fares and jam-packed aircraft ) does not hold up in the post-Covid world. Firstly because nobody wants to sit cheek-by-jowl in a tin can full of potential deadly disease carriers, and second because air-fares will no longer be low.
In addition, and what is not even being considered at this point in time, is that economies all over the world, the UK included, have just taken a massive hit. The UK GDP is said to be down 5% yoy.
This drop in economc activity will be reflected in a much higher %-age drop in overall discretionary spending. Sure, we may see a short stimulus derived blip in spending next year, but longer term, each and every one of us is going to be poorer. Wages are dropping, unemployment is increasing, and soon taxes will go up too. Now I know that many here will argue that they are just gaging to get on holiday again, and I count myself among that group, but the reality is that with money in short supply, fewer people will be able to afford it. As fewer and fewer afford it, fewer and fewer fly, as fewer people fly, prices inevitably need to rise to cover costs. The same goes for the number of destinations being served, that number must also decrease simply because many routes will become unviable.

For many people, Holiday in Saltcoats will start looking like the only option, the posher ones might just make it to Blackpool.

The UK is not a country.

[hads]

What should we call the landmass then?
Approx 67 million awaiting an erudite response.

[Clive]

What should we call the landmass then?
Approx 67 million awaiting an erudite response.

The landmass is the island of Great Britain.

What I said was neither a political point nor an opinion piece like 1-11’s, it’s just a non-contentious simple fact.

[1-11]

I fail to see the connection between my views on the future of Aviation, with the UK not being a country.

Anyway, getting back to the point, I still see the future as being dire, for the reasons that I have outlined above.

What I might add though, is the on-going hysteria about vaccinations and “vaccination passports”. This is just another thorn in the side of the travelling public. Not everybody will want to take a vaccine against corona virus. There are for example, religious groups which do not agree with vaccinations in general, so does that mean that these groups are denied travel ? There are also others who deem the current vaccines to be unsafe as they are still very much in the experimental stage.
Opening up air travel is not going to be as rapid as some, myself included, would wish. It is also never going back to the glory days of Pre-Covid. I think the best we can hope for, are pax numbers about 50% of what they were in 2018, and even at that it will take a few years to get there.

[atuk]

I fail to see the connection between my views on the future of Aviation, with the UK not being a country.

Anyway, getting back to the point, I still see the future as being dire, for the reasons that I have outlined above.

What I might add though, is the on-going hysteria about vaccinations and “vaccination passports”. This is just another thorn in the side of the travelling public. Not everybody will want to take a vaccine against corona virus. There are for example, religious groups which do not agree with vaccinations in general, so does that mean that these groups are denied travel ? There are also others who deem the current vaccines to be unsafe as they are still very much in the experimental stage.
Opening up air travel is not going to be as rapid as some, myself included, would wish. It is also never going back to the glory days of Pre-Covid. I think the best we can hope for, are pax numbers about 50% of what they were in 2018, and even at that it will take a few years to get there.

Unless there is a specific medical reason for not taking the vaccine then the choice is simple. No vaccination stay indoors evermore. Simples!

Back to aviation while I agree there will certainly be a downturn the economy will pick up again. Just use the stock market and shipping rates as two economic indicators. Don’t forget there is a large number of retired, families, couples who have been denied travel but who are perfectly willing to do so.

Furthermore with many households have saved money on travel, eating out, leisure activities all of which have resulted in increased savings to hand. Going forward some surveys have suggested home working will account for 40% of office work generating travel savings going forward.

You state Saltcoats or possibly Blackpool as the upmarket option. If that’s the choice God help us. A week in Blackpool? I’d really rather stay at home. Give me Palma, Hong Kong, Sicily or Crete anyday.

[jetblue497]

my views on the future of Aviation

You have to be narrowing it to the UK and the UK alone. Worldwide is a different story. You are aware that China domestic is already exceeding pre pandemic levels, India is at 93% or thereabouts, Russia close to fully back, Brazil close and there are strong domestic growths in the US? These are not isolated instances. Domestic travel worldwide likely will be close to normal this year pointing to a positive outlook for aviation in general. International travel will rebound once governments wake up to the fact that the vaccine works - that is taking too long. The likelyhood of vaccines has been apparent for months yet a way forward has not been forthcoming which is somewhat concerning. Atuk has already pointed out that people will have disposable cash - that will likely lead to a strong boost in demand. My only concern is that there is another dip after that due to a too slow recovery in broken economies - again governments slowed the economy, they have a responsibility to bear. If we have learned any economic lessons during this pandemic it is that the hospitality and transportation industries are a major driver of the worlds economic engine and repairing that is a huge part of the recovery.

Now if the subject was intended to be " Interesting thoughts on post Brexit UK air industry" then the answer could be somewhat different as the UK is more isolated today than it was this time last year.

[1-11]

Jetblue497,
I am not UK focused, all I did was point out that UK GDP has tanked, I could equally well have chosen a different example.
But what you point out is correct, interestingly enough.
Russia, with its very successful Sputnik-5 vaccine is roaring ahead, but very few Russians ( about 5% so far ) are actually "taking the Jab". China has been roaring ahead for months now - people are out partying in Wuhan. India too with very few vaccinated are opening up, ( mind you India would be a hard place to shut down in the first place ), and Brazil - what was it Bolsenario said yesterday ? "Stop whinging on about Covid and get on with your life !", or words to that effect.
The world of aviation can open up again even without mandatory vaccinations.

It really only seems to be politicians in Europe and the UK that are determined to keep their countries closed and to continue destroying livelihoods. The fearmonger campaign is still in overdrive here, with warnings about the risks of opening up too soon, and of mutant strains of ever increasing lethality.
I do admire your optimism Jetblue, but I still see the European Aviation sector as being down and out. You are right to say that governments bear responsibility for this. It is not the virus which has caused this - it has been the government's reaction to it.
In any case, very few of us will see the inside of an aircraft cabin during 2021, and once we get into winter 2021/22, the virus will magically re-emerge and the politicians will lock us all down again.
It is still too early to say that the vaccines being administered at present actually work, but even at that, there is no reason for governments to stop people from travelling. I totally disagree with the concept of mandating vaccination before you can fly. The Israelis for example are offering a "test before you fly" with results in 15 mins. Something like that could easily be done at Check-in.
Also,another major lesson that has been learned is that Travel and Leisure are a major source of pollution and a large contributor to "Climate Change". Very many people would be more that happy if the travel and leisure industry never came back despite the job losses.
I, by the way, am not one of those people.
Anyway, we will see how it goes, and although I hope that you are right and that I am wrong, I somehow don't think so.