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After using google to get round the paywall..........Allen McL wrote: ↑Sat Mar 06, 2021 3:17 pm Loganair's Jonathan Hinkles gives his thoughts on what's currently being experienced by UK based freight haulers, since our departure from the European Union. No surprises at all.![]()
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The UK is not a country.1-11 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 8:46 pm I think that many people are still in Denial about this.
I like Jonathan Hinkle’s analogy, BC ( Before Covid ) and AD ( After Doomsday ), it shows good humour tempered with dry touch of realism.
The AD air travel industry will be totally different to that of BC.
Carriers like Loganair are getting off with a black eye. The only thing holding them back is Lockdown. Their business, which really amounts to essential travel for these communities, will return as soon as Lockdown is lifted.
For the next few years, international Business travel upon which many of the Legacy carriers depend, will be Over and Out. Each country will probably re-nationalise their “National Carrier”. BA in our case.
Leisure travel, á la Ryanair and Easyjet, will be significantly curtailed. I have a sneaky suspicion that one of this pair will go broke. Their business model, ( low fares and jam-packed aircraft ) does not hold up in the post-Covid world. Firstly because nobody wants to sit cheek-by-jowl in a tin can full of potential deadly disease carriers, and second because air-fares will no longer be low.
In addition, and what is not even being considered at this point in time, is that economies all over the world, the UK included, have just taken a massive hit. The UK GDP is said to be down 5% yoy.
This drop in economc activity will be reflected in a much higher %-age drop in overall discretionary spending. Sure, we may see a short stimulus derived blip in spending next year, but longer term, each and every one of us is going to be poorer. Wages are dropping, unemployment is increasing, and soon taxes will go up too. Now I know that many here will argue that they are just gaging to get on holiday again, and I count myself among that group, but the reality is that with money in short supply, fewer people will be able to afford it. As fewer and fewer afford it, fewer and fewer fly, as fewer people fly, prices inevitably need to rise to cover costs. The same goes for the number of destinations being served, that number must also decrease simply because many routes will become unviable.
For many people, Holiday in Saltcoats will start looking like the only option, the posher ones might just make it to Blackpool.
The landmass is the island of Great Britain.
Unless there is a specific medical reason for not taking the vaccine then the choice is simple. No vaccination stay indoors evermore. Simples!1-11 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 4:22 pm I fail to see the connection between my views on the future of Aviation, with the UK not being a country.
Anyway, getting back to the point, I still see the future as being dire, for the reasons that I have outlined above.
What I might add though, is the on-going hysteria about vaccinations and “vaccination passports”. This is just another thorn in the side of the travelling public. Not everybody will want to take a vaccine against corona virus. There are for example, religious groups which do not agree with vaccinations in general, so does that mean that these groups are denied travel ? There are also others who deem the current vaccines to be unsafe as they are still very much in the experimental stage.
Opening up air travel is not going to be as rapid as some, myself included, would wish. It is also never going back to the glory days of Pre-Covid. I think the best we can hope for, are pax numbers about 50% of what they were in 2018, and even at that it will take a few years to get there.
You have to be narrowing it to the UK and the UK alone. Worldwide is a different story. You are aware that China domestic is already exceeding pre pandemic levels, India is at 93% or thereabouts, Russia close to fully back, Brazil close and there are strong domestic growths in the US? These are not isolated instances. Domestic travel worldwide likely will be close to normal this year pointing to a positive outlook for aviation in general. International travel will rebound once governments wake up to the fact that the vaccine works - that is taking too long. The likelyhood of vaccines has been apparent for months yet a way forward has not been forthcoming which is somewhat concerning. Atuk has already pointed out that people will have disposable cash - that will likely lead to a strong boost in demand. My only concern is that there is another dip after that due to a too slow recovery in broken economies - again governments slowed the economy, they have a responsibility to bear. If we have learned any economic lessons during this pandemic it is that the hospitality and transportation industries are a major driver of the worlds economic engine and repairing that is a huge part of the recovery.