Post Covid-19:What does the future look like?

[bill]

I've become a huge fan of the social distancing thing when shopping in supermarkets.It's a pain queuing to get into the store, granted, but once you're actually in there shopping is much more enjoyable due to the fact that you can get to the stuff you want easily and there are little or no checkout queues.

[Clive]

I've become a huge fan of the social distancing thing when shopping in supermarkets.It's a pain queuing to get into the store, granted, but once you're actually in there shopping is much more enjoyable due to the fact that you can get to the stuff you want easily and there are little or no checkout queues.

This is true mate, but when I‘m doing it there’s always someone clogging the bit I need to get to. I mean who else in Dunoon is buying the halloumi or the turmeric, yet there they always are.

[atuk]

[quote=bill post_id=643 time=<a href="tel:1592063548">1592063548</a> user_id=71]
I've become a huge fan of the social distancing thing when shopping in supermarkets.It's a pain queuing to get into the store, granted, but once you're actually in there shopping is much more enjoyable due to the fact that you can get to the stuff you want easily and there are little or no checkout queues.

This is true mate, but when I‘m doing it there’s always someone clogging the bit I need to get to. I mean who else in Dunoon is buying the halloumi or the turmeric, yet there they always are.
[/quote]

Can identify with turmeric, not halloumi. Seriously though there are massive changes and challenges ahead. I worry not about recession but depression. All these changes businesses have to make and implement cost money. The only way they can offset or recover these costs is to increase prices. I can see, with reduced aircraft fleets, a reduction in global goods and services, particularly foodstuffs. So cue less choice and more local, seasonal foods, with shopping local for local produce. I shudder to think what will be left of the tourism industry, both outbound and inbound. Hotel groups such as Crieff Hydro, MacDonald Hotels, long established and successful businesses, Shearings, the impact on local areas and the supply chain, not to mention Jet2, TUI, easyJet holidays.

Folks will have less disposable income, NI may have to rise: the care home sector, currently broken will need massive cash injections to stabilise it. The backlog of NHS treatments may require a higher spend to alleviate this, the stock markets currently up and down “ more than a whore’s drawers” to quote a former fund manager friend.

All of these scenarios will take their toll however one of the biggest obstacles is people’s confidence. For weeks now we have been asked to comply, in fact conditioned to comply with unfamiliar practices. I know folks desperate to get back out and about- I’m one of them, but many others who are now too scared to contemplate this.

As for flying, I miss my job, I miss my work colleagues massively, I miss being on aircraft, however I like to board, sit back and relax, gin in hand and food whether purchased or complimentary. I’m not so sure that I want to sit masked, minimal service in a metal tube just to get from A to B then self quarantine for two weeks on return.

Yesterday would have seen us depart Glasgow for Palma by BACF. Instead cue indoors, in the rain, in Monifieth. Palma has been replaced by Sicily in August, from Manchester - if it happens. September should see us on a Western Med cruise ex Palma to Lisbon, Cadiz etc. I’m not sure what this will entail as TUI have yet to say what the revised onboard service will comprise.

Yes it will be much easier and simpler with your own property however mass market tourism will take on a completely different face, and I suspect it will take a good few years for it to bounce back to 2019 levels, if in fact it ever does.

[Clive]

I’m far less worried about the longer term than atuk is. I think that by the S21 season this will all be a distant memory.

I also think that by August and certainly increasingly through October there will have been no Covid related cases here for weeks and most people and businesses will be itching to get back to normal. Travel companies will be bruised and battered but the fittest will have survived and be eager to get as many bums on seats as possible. I expect lots of cheap holidays in the next year.

I just have to look to the likes of Spain which ran a couple of weeks ahead of us in the curve. Everything there is now opening up, ok maybe with masks on for now but that will soon ease too.

Here’s a list of some of Europe’s recorded deaths from so thing I was doing a couple of days ago. I think it applied to Thursday past:

Spain 0
Italy 56
Germany 2
France 0
Belgium 10
Sweden 40
Netherlands 9
Switzerland 1
Poland 7
Ireland 0
Romania 11
Austria 1
Denmark 1
Norway 1
Finland 1
Lux. 0
Hungary 2
Greece 0
Bulgaria 0
Croatia 1
N. Ireland 1
Scotland 3
Wales 10
England 193

These figures tell a thousand tales IMO.

[atuk]

Clive, but this is all dependent on filling all seats. Feedback I’m hearing is how much prices have and will increase. This takes out the bottom end of the market and even those higher earning professions will be hit by business closures: banking, legal, marketing to name a few. I saw and lived thought all in 2008 and still see some folks recovering from that situation. My heart goes out to those hit by Thomas Cook failure only to secure new positions with Jet2, easyJet and TUI only to be knocked back down again. And that’s before BA, easyJet, Menzies, Swissport, AGS and GIP/ Vinci swing the axe.

[big ears]

[quote=bill post_id=643 time=<a href="tel:1592063548">1592063548</a> user_id=71]
I've become a huge fan of the social distancing thing when shopping in supermarkets.It's a pain queuing to get into the store, granted, but once you're actually in there shopping is much more enjoyable due to the fact that you can get to the stuff you want easily and there are little or no checkout queues.

Can identify with turmeric, not halloumi. Seriously though there are massive changes and challenges ahead. I worry not about recession but depression. All these changes businesses have to make and implement cost money. The only way they can offset or recover these costs is to increase prices. I can see, with reduced aircraft fleets, a reduction in global goods and services, particularly foodstuffs. So cue less choice and more local, seasonal foods, with shopping local for local produce. I shudder to think what will be left of the tourism industry, both outbound and inbound. Hotel groups such as Crieff Hydro, MacDonald Hotels, long established and successful businesses, Shearings, the impact on local areas and the supply chain, not to mention Jet2, TUI, easyJet holidays.

Is eating local, seasonal foods or shopping for local produce a problem? I think not. We use Aldi, Lidl a lot and they do loads of local Scottish Foodstuffs as do Morrisons. Cant speak for the other supermarkets right enough, but we are seldom let down by Scottish Produce. So I think foodstuffs will be the least of our problems. I'm sure that when the airlines start again the economy will begin to rise also. Instead of shipping PPE, they will be back to Underwear from India, Bangladesh, Tee shirts from Indonesia and shoes from Laos and Viet Nam, and Computers and TVs from China.... Its going to take time, but the World will bounce back.

[atuk]

We use farmshops for fresh fruit, vegetables and eggs. A great local fish shop in Arbroath although the best is still The Fish Place in Glasgow, local butchers in Burrelton and Perth and game dealers at Forfar Farmers Market so local is a necessity, not a problem.

I understand what you say regards clothing etc but my posts also indicated less disposable income being available. That plus travel restrictions, insurance cover and lack of confidence will all take their toll on travel. I’m not saying there won’t be a bounce back but it will take years, not months.

[bill]

Ah well,back to work for me on Monday.I don't know if I'm looking forward to this or what.Mixed feelings really.I suppose it'll be good to get back to some sort of routine and also to start to appreciate the weekends again.

[atuk]

Ah well,back to work for me on Monday.I don't know if I'm looking forward to this or what.Mixed feelings really.I suppose it'll be good to get back to some sort of routine and also to start to appreciate the weekends again.

Hope all goes well Bill.

Notice of redundancy letter received yesterday we are all getting them and shall receive confirmation of redundancy next month for those of us not returning. scary and sad times especially regards the numbers. GLA321 EDI 420. Add in Menzies GLA 160 and EDi 150 front of house or on the ramp are not happy places to be.

Better news regards lifting some fog the quarantine restrictions but, as usual, too little, too late. Some of my colleagues have partners who work there as well as themselves and I know of a family of three all of whom depend on Swissport for their livelihoods.

[bill]

Ah well,back to work for me on Monday.I don't know if I'm looking forward to this or what.Mixed feelings really.I suppose it'll be good to get back to some sort of routine and also to start to appreciate the weekends again.

Hope all goes well Bill.

Notice of redundancy letter received yesterday we are all getting them and shall receive confirmation of redundancy next month for those of us not returning. scary and sad times especially regards the numbers. GLA321 EDI 420. Add in Menzies GLA 160 and EDi 150 front of house or on the ramp are not happy places to be.

Better news regards lifting some fog the quarantine restrictions but, as usual, too little, too late. Some of my colleagues have partners who work there as well as themselves and I know of a family of three all of whom depend on Swissport for their livelihoods.

Absolutely rotten Ian,sorry to hear that.Hope you find something suitable soon mate.