Edinburgh

[PiperOne]

CAA Stats for May now in

Monthly Pax: 1067915
12m rolling: 6.337m
Domestic: 273759
EU: 679804
non-EU: 114352

[GeorgeNTravels]

MCO doesn't look to be doing particularly well.

My thoughts as well, especially considering our MLB was slightly higher than it and had less flights.

[Ekally1]

MCO doesn't look to be doing particularly well.

Heard its under review ... bet vs regretting moving down the M8

[greymare]

Remember the reason for the move was strategic (Delta) with all eggs in one basket, plus the A330 on the Scottish Route was not a great fit with their config compared to the B744. I think they may have felt the A330 into EDI might have attracted more inbound US customers paying a higher yield for their upper product would offset the loss of economy seats from the B744t and therefore it was worth trying EDI. If the new VS model doesn't work at EDI it wont work at GLA. Its also worth noting that a large number of passengers using the route this year were GLA booked before the airport change was announced and large scale cancellations did occur and whether or not that gave them enough time to fill the gaps could be a factor given the cost involved in such holidays are normally approached by most families as a long term project.

[Ekally1]

Remember the reason for the move was strategic (Delta) with all eggs in one basket, plus the A330 on the Scottish Route was not a great fit with their config compared to the B744. I think they may have felt the A330 into EDI might have attracted more inbound US customers paying a higher yield for their upper product would offset the loss of economy seats from the B744t and therefore it was worth trying EDI. If the new VS model doesn't work at EDI it wont work at GLA. Its also worth noting that a large number of passengers using the route this year were GLA booked before the airport change was announced and large scale cancellations did occur and whether or not that gave them enough time to fill the gaps could be a factor given the cost involved in such holidays are normally approached by most families as a long term project.

What american is gonna want to go to Manchester ... VS should stick To the bucket and spade Orlando roots

[Clive]

Remember the reason for the move was strategic (Delta) with all eggs in one basket, plus the A330 on the Scottish Route was not a great fit with their config compared to the B744. I think they may have felt the A330 into EDI might have attracted more inbound US customers paying a higher yield for their upper product would offset the loss of economy seats from the B744t and therefore it was worth trying EDI. If the new VS model doesn't work at EDI it wont work at GLA. Its also worth noting that a large number of passengers using the route this year were GLA booked before the airport change was announced and large scale cancellations did occur and whether or not that gave them enough time to fill the gaps could be a factor given the cost involved in such holidays are normally approached by most families as a long term project.

Sounds like we’ll have had our tea. Unless they chuck it and a different carrier jumps back on GLA-MCO. Aer Lingus for example…..

[greymare]

Remember the reason for the move was strategic (Delta) with all eggs in one basket,

Does this mean:

• a) we shouldn't expect DL to return to GLA?

• b) any Skytream capacity added to central Scotland is likely to be at EDI rather than GLA?

No, to both questions. Decisions being made by airlines right now are about post covid recovery. Many airlines finances are in a bad way, older aircraft have been retired in large numbers and demand particularly in longhaul is proving very slow to return to pre-covid levels. Airlines will concentrate efforts on markets they think they have the best chance of making safe profits and in Scotland the inbound US market is essential to that happening, therefore its likely EDI will be the focus for many US carriers for the next few years until new aircraft like the A321XLR and 737 max10 enter active service in adequate numbers to allow them to look at airports like GLA. Now that does not mean all airlines are in the same position, airlines like United still have adequate 757s to return to GLA, but this will happen when they feel the market conditions have recovered enough to resume, which btw could be as early as next year or 2024. Economic activity right now with inflation and the cost of living crisis which is impacting the US as much as it is to the UK might again deter that investment and re-opening of our route particularly if another global market is recovering quicker where better profits can be made from the 757 equipment.

[Clive]

Remember the reason for the move was strategic (Delta) with all eggs in one basket,

Does this mean:

• a) we shouldn't expect DL to return to GLA?

• b) any Skytream capacity added to central Scotland is likely to be at EDI rather than GLA?

No, to both questions. Decisions being made by airlines right now are about post covid recovery. Many airlines finances are in a bad way, older aircraft have been retired in large numbers and demand particularly in longhaul is proving very slow to return to pre-covid levels. Airlines will concentrate efforts on markets they think they have the best chance of making safe profits and in Scotland the inbound US market is essential to that happening, therefore its likely EDI will be the focus for many US carriers for the next few years until new aircraft like the A321XLR and 737 max10 enter active service in adequate numbers to allow them to look at airports like GLA. Now that does not mean all airlines are in the same position, airlines like United still have adequate 757s to return to GLA, but this will happen when they feel the market conditions have recovered enough to resume, which btw could be as early as next year or 2024. Economic activity right now with inflation and the cost of living crisis which is impacting the US as much as it is to the UK might again deter that investment and re-opening of our route particularly if another global market is recovering quicker where better profits can be made from the 757 equipment.

If Aer Lingus make a success of the Transatlantic MAN services perhaps they could be persuaded to replicate both their US routes at GLA. Forget BGI though…

[greymare]

Remember the reason for the move was strategic (Delta) with all eggs in one basket, plus the A330 on the Scottish Route was not a great fit with their config compared to the B744. I think they may have felt the A330 into EDI might have attracted more inbound US customers paying a higher yield for their upper product would offset the loss of economy seats from the B744t and therefore it was worth trying EDI. If the new VS model doesn't work at EDI it wont work at GLA. Its also worth noting that a large number of passengers using the route this year were GLA booked before the airport change was announced and large scale cancellations did occur and whether or not that gave them enough time to fill the gaps could be a factor given the cost involved in such holidays are normally approached by most families as a long term project.

Sounds like we’ll have had our tea. Unless they chuck it and a different carrier jumps back on GLA-MCO. Aer Lingus for example…..

The Orlando/UK market right now is very difficult as there is very few options available to fill back the loss of Tammy Cook capacity. TUI as most people know have come out of the Covid crisis with huge debt, so there strategy like i said above is about making as much profit from the their current fleet as possible. This means not over providing on Orlando and Cancun for example as this will help with yield and drive up profitability on each longhaul asset and they can meet the huge demand in European sunshine spots by flying those very same longhaul aircraft to DLM, PMI and TFS which allows the 787s to do two departures per day rather than one on longhaul routes and again increasing asset profitability.

Aer Lingus as you say is an obvious choice to consider going forward as is one other UK airline, however the question is will Aer Lingus UK strategy be to continue expanding their network from MAN, growing market share and profitability on their new routes and trying to grab as much of the TCX market or will they look at setting up new routes/stations from airports like GLA or BHX.

Having said all that, I believe that Aer Lingus might not be the best fit for GLA, as the Aer Lingus brand strength might not be strong enough to attract inbound US tourists (I maybe wrong), therefore it may need an airline with a UK tour company behind it to attract the necessary UK departure volume to make the route viable just like TCX. I say this as I look at TUI they are filling these MLB flights but they have a huge UK presence to help fill their aircraft.

[Clive]

Remember the reason for the move was strategic (Delta) with all eggs in one basket, plus the A330 on the Scottish Route was not a great fit with their config compared to the B744. I think they may have felt the A330 into EDI might have attracted more inbound US customers paying a higher yield for their upper product would offset the loss of economy seats from the B744t and therefore it was worth trying EDI. If the new VS model doesn't work at EDI it wont work at GLA. Its also worth noting that a large number of passengers using the route this year were GLA booked before the airport change was announced and large scale cancellations did occur and whether or not that gave them enough time to fill the gaps could be a factor given the cost involved in such holidays are normally approached by most families as a long term project.

Sounds like we’ll have had our tea. Unless they chuck it and a different carrier jumps back on GLA-MCO. Aer Lingus for example…..

The Orlando/UK market right now is very difficult as there is very few options available to fill back the loss of Tammy Cook capacity. TUI as most people know have come out of the Covid crisis with huge debt, so there strategy like i said above is about making as much profit from the their current fleet as possible. This means not over providing on Orlando and Cancun for example as this will help with yield and drive up profitability on each longhaul asset and they can meet the huge demand in European sunshine spots by flying those very same longhaul aircraft to DLM, PMI and TFS which allows the 787s to do two departures per day rather than one on longhaul routes and again increasing asset profitability.

Aer Lingus as you say is an obvious choice to consider going forward as is one other UK airline, however the question is will Aer Lingus UK strategy be to continue expanding their network from MAN, growing market share and profitability on their new routes and trying to grab as much of the TCX market or will they look at setting up new routes/stations from airports like GLA or BHX.

Having said all that, I believe that Aer Lingus might not be the best fit for GLA, as the Aer Lingus brand strength might not be strong enough to attract inbound US tourists (I maybe wrong), therefore it may need an airline with a UK tour company behind it to attract the necessary UK departure volume to make the route viable just like TCX. I say this as I look at TUI they are filling these MLB flights but they have a huge UK presence to help fill their aircraft.

Thanks for the insight. I presume that AA and BA would also be selling the Aer Lingus seats in the USA. All 3 carriers are well known to New Yorkers and AA would feed from all over the States.

A big part of the problem for GLA is there just isn’t a swathe of potential tour operators or airlines who could do Scotland-Orlando. I can only think of Jet2 if they ever decided to take the plunge on UK-US. Not something on their mid-term radar, I wouldn’t think.