Hypothetical two-part question...

[bill]

1. If BAA had sold GLA instead of EDI, do you think the outcome for GLA would have been the same as EDI has experienced? Supposing GIP had bought GLA, would we have seen business soaring or were the cards already stacked against GLA due to their notoriously slow uptake with lo-co, alliances etc,etc...?
2. If GLA was ever put up for sale (please God) who would you like to see buy it?

Just interested in opinions.

[awwdabaaby]

I think we were already in the position of where we are even if BAA sold us

As to who would buy it, I'd need to think about that one

[GKirk]

No, I think the market was always shifting to EDI regardless. A different management may have made a difference however, albeit, not a large one

[Clive]

No, I think the market was always shifting to EDI regardless. A different management may have made a difference however, albeit, not a large one

Agree with that. I’ve said a million times that Edinburgh is a top visitor destination.

Sadly GLA bosses did nothing to capture any of that business and when airlines consolidated at EDI due to critical mass we are inevitably left with scraps.

GLA is never going to be as popular as EDI but what GLA bosses need to do is achieve the correct level of market share. Currently they are below that even when you factor in metrics like visitor numbers.

If GIP had bought GLA instead of EDI who knows? Perhaps we would have a 4 million-strong Ryanair base and an 4 million easyjet base and be serving the Edinburgh city break market. Or maybe we wouldn’t.

Basically Bill’s question boils down to what people think the two different managements would have done and how much would have been invested to facilitate the growth. Many people here have anti-BAA opinions which don’t bear scrutiny. It was under BAA that GLA grew from about 3m to 10 million and at one time had dozens of Transatlantic flights while EDI remained a sleepy hollow until the end of the 20th century.

[Bearsden]

The first airport to be sold by the BAA in Scotland was a 'forced sale' but it was always going to get a head start as a willing buyer had been found - clearly GIP had experience of LGW and appointed an experienced airport director who knew the local market and the main competitor

AGS is a consolidation of three disparate airports stretching from virtually one end of the UK mainland to the other and with no obvious significant synergy when it comes to route development . . . the price paid by Ferrovial & Macquarie was quite frankly ludicrously high so now AGS is burdened with debt and rising interest rates

From the outside we don't know if any of the local management's proposed deals didn't make the required (high) returns or were vetoed by the shareholders but clearly it appears that the medium to long term strategy of the main competitor wasn't countered so we are now in the position of playing second fiddle

I think it is fair to say that Amanda made some limited progress but one key driver was failing to keep even a small Ryanair base . . . hidden under the smokescreen of no APD reduction it is clear that Mr Dewar knew exactly what was happening when he announced an expansion at Edinburgh on the very same day (I have said before in this forum that she did not know about the announcement until the day before)

Since her departure it has gone downhill rapidly, yes COVID-19 plays a part but Wizzair had already gone and while a daily Emirates A380 might appear positive I think we would all rather have double daily B777s to compete with Qatar, Turkish and now Hainan who must be taking away some of the volume (the Ferrovial website still says Glasgow is the second busiest airport in Scotland after Edinburgh and is the largest for long-haul flights, connecting Scotland with Asia and the North Atlantic.) . . . I call that investor misrepresentation!

[Clive]

The first airport to be sold by the BAA in Scotland was a 'forced sale' but it was always going to get a head start as a willing buyer had been found - clearly GIP had experience of LGW and appointed an experienced airport director who knew the local market and the main competitor

AGS is a consolidation of three disparate airports stretching from virtually one end of the UK mainland to the other and with no obvious significant synergy when it comes to route development . . . the price paid by Ferrovial & Macquarie was quite frankly ludicrously high so now AGS is burdened with debt and rising interest rates

From the outside we don't know if any of the local management's proposed deals didn't make the required (high) returns or were vetoed by the shareholders but clearly it appears that the medium to long term strategy of the main competitor wasn't countered so we are now in the position of playing second fiddle

I think it is fair to say that Amanda made some limited progress but one key driver was failing to keep even a small Ryanair base . . . hidden under the smokescreen of no APD reduction it is clear that Mr Dewar knew exactly what was happening when he announced an expansion at Edinburgh on the very same day (I have said before in this forum that she did not know about the announcement until the day before)

Since her departure it has gone downhill rapidly, yes COVID-19 plays a part but Wizzair had already gone and while a daily Emirates A380 might appear positive I think we would all rather have double daily B777s to compete with Qatar, Turkish and now Hainan who must be taking away some of the volume (the Ferrovial website still says Glasgow is the second busiest airport in Scotland after Edinburgh and is the largest for long-haul flights, connecting Scotland with Asia and the North Atlantic.) . . . I call that investor misrepresentation!

So as Bill asks, if GIP had bought GLA and AGS owned EDI would the fortunes have been reversed? Can’t see it myself because you haven’t touched on market forces or the international perception that Edinburgh is the place to be in tiny little Scotland.

It’s like Dublin and Cork in Ireland but with only with 40 miles between them. If we took that example can we see that using the runway and facilities at DUB would be an easy choice for most of the airlines?

[Bearsden]

The first airport to be sold by the BAA in Scotland was a 'forced sale' but it was always going to get a head start as a willing buyer had been found - clearly GIP had experience of LGW and appointed an experienced airport director who knew the local market and the main competitor

AGS is a consolidation of three disparate airports stretching from virtually one end of the UK mainland to the other and with no obvious significant synergy when it comes to route development . . . the price paid by Ferrovial & Macquarie was quite frankly ludicrously high so now AGS is burdened with debt and rising interest rates

From the outside we don't know if any of the local management's proposed deals didn't make the required (high) returns or were vetoed by the shareholders but clearly it appears that the medium to long term strategy of the main competitor wasn't countered so we are now in the position of playing second fiddle

I think it is fair to say that Amanda made some limited progress but one key driver was failing to keep even a small Ryanair base . . . hidden under the smokescreen of no APD reduction it is clear that Mr Dewar knew exactly what was happening when he announced an expansion at Edinburgh on the very same day (I have said before in this forum that she did not know about the announcement until the day before)

Since her departure it has gone downhill rapidly, yes COVID-19 plays a part but Wizzair had already gone and while a daily Emirates A380 might appear positive I think we would all rather have double daily B777s to compete with Qatar, Turkish and now Hainan who must be taking away some of the volume (the Ferrovial website still says Glasgow is the second busiest airport in Scotland after Edinburgh and is the largest for long-haul flights, connecting Scotland with Asia and the North Atlantic.) . . . I call that investor misrepresentation!

So as Bill asks, if GIP had bought GLA and AGS owned EDI would the fortunes have been reversed? Can’t see it myself because you haven’t touched on market forces or the international perception that Edinburgh is the place to be in tiny little Scotland.

It’s like Dublin and Cork in Ireland but with only with 40 miles between them. If we took that example can we see that using the runway and facilities at DUB would be an easy choice for most of the airlines?

Would the fortunes have been reversed? No, but assuming GIP understood what they were buying and didn't pay over the odds for GLA then I believe long-term deals would have been struck with certain airlines to mitigate the lure of the capital and to hold onto more of the outbound 'bucket & spade' market as the significance of the 'traditional' tour operators diminished

Impossible to comment if Ferrovial/Macquarie had bought EDI would they have been as successful as GIP - fundamentally both just want a return on their investment annually and in particular on the eventual sale of the asset (see GIP website where investments are classed as REALIZED eg LCY and UNREALIZED eg EDI & LGW), but much depends on the 'boots on the ground' understanding the market and the competition to get commercial and investment proposals approved . . . and to get their personal bonuses!

I've always said that Central Scotland is effectively one market for overseas routes, especially for long-haul routes - so (in no specific order) price, destinations, frequencies, timings, airline alliances, ground transport links, crew accommodation, customer service metrics all come into the equation

Not quite the same as Dublin v Cork because you have the primary base of the former state airline at Dublin so naturally it had the much stronger hand and of course Ryanair has multiplied that advantage . . . but I would agree that the trend over the last ten years in Scotland is similar but not as stark with the size of airline bases being the key differentiator

[bill]

My own hunch (and it's only a hunch based on nothing scientific) is that there would still be an imbalance in EDI's favour if GIP had bought GLA and not EDI. EDI will always be the inbound tourist magnet and that will never change, but I suspect that GIP would never have given up the USA flights without a fight. I am of course assuming that AGS did put up a fight and offered incentives amounting to more than two bags of Monster Munch and a Curly Wurly.
Also, GIP have always (usually) seemed more tolerant of the lo-co's so FR could've been based here too. Just two based B738's would put north of 2 million pax on the books instantly.
Like I say, only a theory and we'll never know for sure but it is safe to say GLA would be in an infinately better position with GIP running the show.

Edited to add that you'll easily tell that GIP would be my preferred operator.

[atuk]

Historically post open skies BAA used EDI for Europe and GLA for long haul. I remember one Saturday Piper One and I took ourselves to EDI in the morning: AMS, CDG, FRA, LHR! Returning to GLA early Saturday afternoon it was all ALC, PMI, AGP, FAO.

The inbound charter market always favoured EDI as did Balkan destinations. Yugotours always had more EDI flights than GLA as did Balkan.

BAA should have grabbed FR for GLA in the Waverley days: they also missed EZY big time by rejecting the chance if base number two with a local HQ in Inchinnan!

That said I don’t think much would have changed unless the management mindset had changed. You don’t wait for business to fall into your lap; you hungrily go out and seek it, engage it and secure it. I don’t see this even with the TUI increase. How much of that is simply consolidation and reducing base overheads rather than organic growth at GLA? Despite what has been said the W flights keep the aircraft GLA based but serve other destinations too. An approach I’ve called for decades ago.

All I can hope for is that the economic deal for Glasgow helps generate more traffic for what is an underused facility. Here’s hoping the latest interest rate rise and potentially more to come don’t prove to be the nail in the financial coffin of the AGS debt mountain.